Disruption of Rhino Demography by Poachers May Lead to Population Declines in Kruger National Park, South Africa.
Disruption of Rhino Demography by Poachers May Lead to Population Declines in Kruger National Park, South Africa.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0127783
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Pienaar D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ferreira SM;Greaver C;Knight GA;Knight MH;Smit IP;Pienaar D
尽管采取了许多旨在遏制犀牛的措施，但对世界犀牛的攻击仍在继续。当偷猎造成的损失超过出生率时，犀牛数量就会下降。我们使用先前公布的黑犀牛（2008年）和白色犀牛（2010年）的估计和增长率，以及当时已知的偷猎趋势，预测2013年南非克鲁格国家公园的种群规模和偷猎率。克鲁格是东南部黑犀牛和南部白色犀牛的据点。使用直升机在878个3x 3公里大小的街区上计数犀牛，估计可用性偏差，整理观察者和可检测性偏差，允许使用Jolly估计器进行估计。每天偷猎犀牛数量的指数级增长似乎已经放缓。414头黑犀牛的估计值（95%置信区间：343-487）低于预测的835头（95% CI：754-956）。白色犀牛的估计值为8，968头（95%CI：8，394 - 9，564），与预测值9，417头（95%CI：7，698 - 11，183）重叠。白色犀牛的出生率和死亡率的密度依赖性和依赖性反应提供了机会，通过从高密度地区清除犀牛来抵消预期的偷猎影响，以提高出生率和存活率。然而，犀牛的生物管理需要对偷猎威胁进行补充管理，因为目前的偷猎趋势预测，到2018年，白色犀牛的丰度将明显下降。反偷猎等战略对策保护供应免受非法捕捞，减少需求和增加供应通常需要犯罪网络中断作为第一步，并在毗邻保护区的地区提供替代经济的选择。
The onslaught on the World’s rhinoceroses continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. When losses due to poaching exceed birth rates, declining rhino populations result. We used previously published estimates and growth rates for black rhinos (2008) and white rhinos (2010) together with known poaching trends at the time to predict population sizes and poaching rates in Kruger National Park, South Africa for 2013. Kruger is a stronghold for the south-eastern black rhino and southern white rhino. Counting rhinos on 878 blocks 3x3 km in size using helicopters, estimating availability bias and collating observer and detectability biases allowed estimates using the Jolly’s estimator. The exponential escalation in number of rhinos poached per day appears to have slowed. The black rhino estimate of 414 individuals (95% confidence interval: 343-487) was lower than the predicted 835 individuals (95% CI: 754-956). The white rhino estimate of 8,968 individuals (95% CI: 8,394-9,564) overlapped with the predicted 9,417 individuals (95% CI: 7,698-11,183). Density- and rainfall-dependent responses in birth- and death rates of white rhinos provide opportunities to offset anticipated poaching effects through removals of rhinos from high density areas to increase birth and survival rates. Biological management of rhinos, however, need complimentary management of the poaching threat as present poaching trends predict detectable declines in white rhino abundances by 2018. Strategic responses such as anti-poaching that protect supply from illegal harvesting, reducing demand, and increasing supply commonly require crime network disruption as a first step complimented by providing options for alternative economies in areas abutting protected areas.
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影响因子：
2.3
作者：
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通讯作者：
CAUGHLEY, G
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作者：
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