Epidemiology and evolution of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, 2012-2020.
Epidemiology and evolution of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, 2012-2020.
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2012-2020年中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒的流行病学和演变。
DOI：
10.1186/s40249-021-00853-0
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发表时间：
2021-05-08
影响因子：
8.1
通讯作者：
Fang LQ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang AR;Shi WQ;Liu K;Li XL;Liu MJ;Zhang WH;Zhao GP;Chen JJ;Zhang XA;Miao D;Ma W;Liu W;Yang Y;Fang LQ
中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒（MERS-CoV）在中东的持续传播及其向其他地区的扩展引起了人们对潜在大流行的担忧。需要对该病原体的群体流行病学和分子流行病学进行深入分析。截至2020年6月全球报告的MERS病例主要来源于世界卫生组织的官方报告，并辅以其他可靠来源。分别用Logistic回归和考克斯比例风险模型评估MERS病死率和空间扩散的决定因素。进行系统发育和地理分布分析，以检查MERS冠状病毒的进化和迁移历史。共报告2562例MERS确诊病例，150个病例群，病死率为32.7%（95%CI：30.9 - 34.6%）。沙特阿拉伯占83.6%。年龄≥ 65岁、基础疾病和诊断延迟≥ 5天是死亡的独立危险因素。然而，在< 65岁的女性病例中，动物接触史与较高的风险相关（校正OR = 2.97，95%CI：1.10-7.98），而在≥ 65岁的男性病例中，风险较低（校正OR = 0.31，95%CI：0.18-0.51）。该疾病从沙特阿拉伯的起源向东部扩散最快，主要是由交通网络驱动的。最近的分支C5.1（自2013年以来）与非同义突变和更高的死亡率有关。系统地理学分析指出，沙特阿拉伯的利雅得和阿拉伯联合酋长国的阿布扎比是中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒在当地和国际传播的中心。中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒仍然主要在中东地区局部传播，有机会出口到其他大陆，并有可能造成人类病例的传播集群。动物接触与较高的死亡风险相关，但这种相关性因年龄和性别而异。交通网络是疾病空间扩散的主要驱动力。这些发现有助于有针对性地进行公共卫生监测和干预，以控制地方病并预防潜在的大流行。在线版本包含补充材料，可通过10.1186/s40249-021-00853-0获得。
The ongoing transmission of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Middle East and its expansion to other regions are raising concerns of a potential pandemic. An in-depth analysis about both population and molecular epidemiology of this pathogen is needed. MERS cases reported globally as of June 2020 were collected mainly from World Health Organization official reports, supplemented by other reliable sources. Determinants for case fatality and spatial diffusion of MERS were assessed with Logistic regressions and Cox proportional hazard models, respectively. Phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses were performed to examine the evolution and migration history of MERS-CoV. A total of 2562 confirmed MERS cases with 150 case clusters were reported with a case fatality rate of 32.7% (95% CI: 30.9‒34.6%). Saudi Arabia accounted for 83.6% of the cases. Age of ≥ 65 years old, underlying conditions and ≥ 5 days delay in diagnosis were independent risk factors for death. However, a history of animal contact was associated with a higher risk (adjusted OR = 2.97, 95% CI: 1.10–7.98) among female cases < 65 years but with a lower risk (adjusted OR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.18–0.51) among male cases ≥ 65 years old. Diffusion of the disease was fastest from its origin in Saudi Arabia to the east, and was primarily driven by the transportation network. The most recent sub-clade C5.1 (since 2013) was associated with non-synonymous mutations and a higher mortality rate. Phylogeographic analyses pointed to Riyadh of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi of the United Arab Emirates as the hubs for both local and international spread of MERS-CoV. MERS-CoV remains primarily locally transmitted in the Middle East, with opportunistic exportation to other continents and a potential of causing transmission clusters of human cases. Animal contact is associated with a higher risk of death, but the association differs by age and sex. Transportation network is the leading driver for the spatial diffusion of the disease. These findings how this pathogen spread are helpful for targeting public health surveillance and interventions to control endemics and to prevent a potential pandemic. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-021-00853-0.
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(14)60381-0
发表时间：
2014-06-14
期刊：
Lancet (London, England)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Memish ZA;Zumla A;Alhakeem RF;Assiri A;Turkestani A;Al Harby KD;Alyemni M;Dhafar K;Gautret P;Barbeschi M;McCloskey B;Heymann D;Al Rabeeah AA;Al-Tawfiq JA
通讯作者：
Al-Tawfiq JA
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Kim JI;Kim YJ;Lemey P;Lee I;Park S;Bae JY;Kim D;Kim H;Jang SI;Yang JS;Kim H;Kim DW;Nam JG;Kim SS;Kim K;Myun Lee J;Song MK;Song D;Chang J;Hong KJ;Bae YS;Song JW;Lee JS;Park MS
通讯作者：
Park MS
DOI：
10.1016/j.onehlt.2018.05.002
发表时间：
2018-06
期刊：
One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)
影响因子：
--
作者：
David D;Rotenberg D;Khinich E;Erster O;Bardenstein S;van Straten M;Okba NMA;Raj SV;Haagmans BL;Miculitzki M;Davidson I
通讯作者：
Davidson I
影响因子：
5.3
作者：
Sagulenko P;Puller V;Neher RA
通讯作者：
Neher RA
影响因子：
7.7
作者：
Dudas, Gytis;Carvalho, Luiz Max;Bedford, Trevor
通讯作者：
Bedford, Trevor