Influence of population density, temperature, and absolute humidity on spread and decay durations of COVID-19: A comparative study of scenarios in China, England, Germany, and Japan.
Influence of population density, temperature, and absolute humidity on spread and decay durations of COVID-19: A comparative study of scenarios in China, England, Germany, and Japan.
复制标题
人口密度、温度和绝对湿度对COVID-19传播和衰减持续时间的影响：中国、英国、德国和日本情景的比较研究。
DOI：
10.1016/j.onehlt.2020.100203
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发表时间：
2021-06
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Hirata A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Diao Y;Kodera S;Anzai D;Gomez-Tames J;Rashed EA;Hirata A
在这项研究中，我们分析了COVID-19大流行在中国、英国、德国和日本的几个城市的传播和衰减持续时间，这些城市的第一波经历了衰减。医疗和健康保险制度的差异，以及地区政策的差异，妨碍了对不同城市和国家的传播和衰退的比较。根据一个不对称钟形模型，对四个研究国家城市的扩散和衰减持续时间进行了重新排序和计算。我们获取了环境温度、绝对湿度和人口密度的值，进行多变量分析。我们发现，在四个被分析的国家中，传播和衰减持续时间与人口密度有显著的相关性（p < 0.05）。其中，扩散持续时间与种群密度、绝对湿度的相关性最高（p < 0.05），腐烂持续时间与种群密度、绝对湿度和最高温度的相关性最高（p < 0.05）。在中国，由于实行严格的封锁，人口密度的影响几乎不存在。我们的研究结果将有助于下一次大流行以及下一波COVID-19的政策制定和政府行动。
In this study, we analyzed the spread and decay durations of the COVID-19 pandemic in several cities of China, England, Germany, and Japan, where the first wave has undergone decay. Differences in medical and health insurance systems, as well as in regional policies incommoded the comparison of the spread and decay in different cities and countries. The spread and decay durations in the cities of the four studied countries were reordered and calculated based on an asymmetric bell-shaped model. We acquired the values of the ambient temperature, absolute humidity, and population density to perform multivariable analysis. We found a significant correlation (p < 0.05) of the spread and decay durations with population density in the four analyzed countries. Specifically, spread duration showed a high correlation with population density and absolute humidity (p < 0.05), whereas decay duration demonstrated the highest correlation with population density, absolute humidity, and maximum temperature (p < 0.05). The effect of population density was almost nonexistent in China because of the implemented strict lockdown. Our findings will be useful in policy setting and governmental actions in the next pandemic, as well as in the next waves of COVID-19.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph17155477
发表时间：
2020-08-01
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kodera, Sachiko;Rashed, Essam A.;Hirata, Akimasa
通讯作者：
Hirata, Akimasa