Climate change, humidity, and mortality in the United States.

Climate change, humidity, and mortality in the United States.
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DOI:
10.1016/j.jeem.2011.07.004
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发表时间:
2012-01-01
影响因子:
4.6
通讯作者:
Barreca AI
Barreca AI
中科院分区:
经济学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Barreca AI

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本文估计了美国(约 1973 年至 2002 年)湿度和温度对死亡率的影响,以便深入了解气候变化对健康的潜在影响。我发现湿度和温度一样,是死亡率的重要决定因素。结合哈德利 CM3 气候变化预测,我预测美国的死亡率总体上可能不会发生什么变化。然而,分布影响很重要:寒冷和干燥地区的死亡率可能会下降,但炎热和潮湿地区的死亡率可能会上升。此外,考虑湿度对于评估这些分布效应具有重要意义。
This paper estimates the effects of humidity and temperature on mortality rates in the United States (c. 1973–2002) in order to provide an insight into the potential health impacts of climate change. I find that humidity, like temperature, is an important determinant of mortality. Coupled with Hadley CM3 climate-change predictions, I project that mortality rates are likely to change little on the aggregate for the United States. However, distributional impacts matter: mortality rates are likely to decline in cold and dry areas, but increase in hot and humid areas. Further, accounting for humidity has important implications for evaluating these distributional effects.
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