Changes in social contacts in England during the COVID-19 pandemic between March 2020 and March 2021 as measured by the CoMix survey: A repeated cross-sectional study.
Changes in social contacts in England during the COVID-19 pandemic between March 2020 and March 2021 as measured by the CoMix survey: A repeated cross-sectional study.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pmed.1003907
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发表时间：
2022-03
期刊：
影响因子：
15.8
通讯作者：
Jarvis CI
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gimma A;Munday JD;Wong KLM;Coletti P;van Zandvoort K;Prem K;CMMID COVID-19 working group;Klepac P;Rubin GJ;Funk S;Edmunds WJ;Jarvis CI
在2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行期间，英国政府在英格兰实施了公共卫生政策，以减少社会接触，希望遏制病毒传播。我们进行了一项重复的横断面研究，从2020年3月到2021年3月，每周测量接触模式，以估计这些政策的影响，研究涵盖了3次国家封锁，其间穿插着限制较少的政策时期。重复的横断面调查数据是通过对英国人口按年龄和性别的代表性样本进行在线调查收集的。调查参与者是由在线市场研究公司益普索莫里（Ipsos MORI）通过基于互联网的横幅广告、社交媒体广告和电子邮件活动招募的。用于本分析的参与者数据仅限于那些报告居住在英国的人。我们使用（聚类）自举法计算了报告的平均每日接触，并拟合了一个审查负二项模型来估计年龄分层接触矩阵，并使用接触变化作为比例因子来估计受控条件下基本繁殖数的比例变化。为了正确看待这些发现，我们根据POLYMOD研究社会接触研究中先前记录的比率讨论了全年记录的接触率。该调查记录了来自19,914名参与者的101,350次观察，他们在53周内报告了466,710次接触。我们观察了英国社会接触模式随时间的变化，以及参与者的年龄、个人风险因素和风险感知。在研究期间，18至59岁成年人报告的平均接触次数在2.39（95%可信区间[CI] 2.20至2.60）和4.93（95%可信区间[CI] 4.65至5.19）之间。学龄儿童（5至17岁）的平均接触率为3.07 （95% CI 2.89至3.27）至15.11 （95% CI 13.87至16.41）。这表明，与2005年至2006年POLYMOD社会接触研究测量的所有年龄组中每个参与者的平均11.08次（95% CI 10.54至11.57）接触相比，社会接触持续减少。在封锁期间测量的接触人数低于放松社会限制期间。自2020年7月政府规定在某些环境中使用面罩以来，户外面罩的使用率一直很高。这一分析的主要局限性是潜在的选择偏差，因为参与者是通过基于互联网的活动招募的，以及回忆偏差，参与者可能会少报或多报他们所建立的联系数量。在这项研究中，我们观察到，与大流行前的水平相比，记录的接触者显著减少（如POLYMOD研究中所测量的），报告的接触者的变化与整个大流行期间政府干预措施相关。尽管在2020年夏季放宽了限制，但报告的平均接触人数仅恢复到大流行前最高记录水平的一半左右。CoMix调查提供了英格兰从第一次封锁的第一天起一整年的独特重复横截面数据集，用于COVID-19和其他疾病的统计分析和数学建模。在一项重复的横断面研究中，艾米·吉玛（Amy Gimma）及其同事研究了新冠肺炎大流行第一年英国封锁期和政府干预背景下的社会接触模式。数学模型可用于更好地了解2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的传播动态，并可通过在大流行条件下建立的社会接触数量的经验证据加以加强。我们确定需要实时社会接触数据来为疫情模型提供信息，因为我们预计社会接触行为会因感知到的风险以及在大流行期间政府限制社会接触的政策而发生变化。我们于2020年3月24日启动了CoMix社会接触和行为研究，以捕捉社会接触、风险认知和其他行为（如手卫生和使用面罩）的变化。在英国最严格的封锁期间，我们发现英格兰报告的平均接触人数比大流行前17岁以上成年人的接触人数减少了约75%。全年，平均接触人数仍然很低，仅达到大流行前水平的50%左右，即使在限制社会活动的政策相对较少的时期也是如此。在每次封城期间，成年人的接触人数恢复到与第一次封城期间相似的水平，而儿童的平均接触人数取决于学校是否开放进行面对面学习。整个一年中，管理英格兰的英国政府使用CoMix社会联系数据来监测社会联系，并作为基本繁殖数量变化的早期指示。虽然这些数据已经被实时使用，但研究人员和政策制定者都需要考虑到CoMix研究结果的一些局限性，包括社会联系的自我报告，这可能会由于记忆不准确或由于报告更多或更少联系的社会压力而导致偏见。研究人员和政策制定者将继续使用这些数据来监测社会行为的变化，模拟COVID-19和其他疾病的传播，并做出重要的政策决定。
During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the United Kingdom government imposed public health policies in England to reduce social contacts in hopes of curbing virus transmission. We conducted a repeated cross-sectional study to measure contact patterns weekly from March 2020 to March 2021 to estimate the impact of these policies, covering 3 national lockdowns interspersed by periods of less restrictive policies. The repeated cross-sectional survey data were collected using online surveys of representative samples of the UK population by age and gender. Survey participants were recruited by the online market research company Ipsos MORI through internet-based banner and social media ads and email campaigns. The participant data used for this analysis are restricted to those who reported living in England. We calculated the mean daily contacts reported using a (clustered) bootstrap and fitted a censored negative binomial model to estimate age-stratified contact matrices and estimate proportional changes to the basic reproduction number under controlled conditions using the change in contacts as a scaling factor. To put the findings in perspective, we discuss contact rates recorded throughout the year in terms of previously recorded rates from the POLYMOD study social contact study. The survey recorded 101,350 observations from 19,914 participants who reported 466,710 contacts over 53 weeks. We observed changes in social contact patterns in England over time and by participants’ age, personal risk factors, and perception of risk. The mean reported contacts for adults 18 to 59 years old ranged between 2.39 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.20 to 2.60) contacts and 4.93 (95% CI 4.65 to 5.19) contacts during the study period. The mean contacts for school-age children (5 to 17 years old) ranged from 3.07 (95% CI 2.89 to 3.27) to 15.11 (95% CI 13.87 to 16.41). This demonstrates a sustained decrease in social contacts compared to a mean of 11.08 (95% CI 10.54 to 11.57) contacts per participant in all age groups combined as measured by the POLYMOD social contact study in 2005 to 2006. Contacts measured during periods of lockdowns were lower than in periods of eased social restrictions. The use of face coverings outside the home has remained high since the government mandated use in some settings in July 2020. The main limitations of this analysis are the potential for selection bias, as participants are recruited through internet-based campaigns, and recall bias, in which participants may under- or overreport the number of contacts they have made. In this study, we observed that recorded contacts reduced dramatically compared to prepandemic levels (as measured in the POLYMOD study), with changes in reported contacts correlated with government interventions throughout the pandemic. Despite easing of restrictions in the summer of 2020, the mean number of reported contacts only returned to about half of that observed prepandemic at its highest recorded level. The CoMix survey provides a unique repeated cross-sectional data set for a full year in England, from the first day of the first lockdown, for use in statistical analyses and mathematical modelling of COVID-19 and other diseases. In a repeated cross-sectional study, Amy Gimma and colleagues study social contact patterns in the context of lockdown periods and government interventions in England during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Mathematical models can be used to better understand the transmission dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and could be strengthened by empirical evidence of the number of social contacts made under pandemic conditions. We identified a need for real-time social contact data to inform outbreak models, as we expected social contact behaviour to change due to perceived risk and in response to government policies restricting social contact over the course of the pandemic. We launched the CoMix social contact and behavioural study on March 24, 2020 to capture the changes in social contacts, risk perception, and other behaviours, such as hand hygiene and the use of face coverings. During the most stringent lockdown in the UK, we found that the mean number of reported contacts in England was about 75% less than prepandemic measures for adults over the age of 17. Throughout the year, the mean number of contacts remained low—only reaching about 50% of the prepandemic levels, even during periods of relatively few policies remaining to restrict social activity. During each lockdown, contacts returned to similar levels as the first lockdown for adults, while the mean number of contacts for children depends on whether or not schools were open for in-person learning. Throughout the year, the UK government, which governs England, used the CoMix social contact data to monitor social contacts and as an early indication of changes to the basic reproduction number. While these data have been put to use in real time, both researchers and policymakers need to take into account some limitations of the CoMix study results, including the self-reporting of social contacts, which could lead to bias as a result of inaccurate memory or due to social pressure to report more or fewer contacts. These data will continue to be used by researchers and policymakers to monitor changes in social behaviour, to model transmission of COVID-19 and other diseases, and to make important policy decisions.
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DOI：
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影响因子：
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