Assessing weather effects on dengue disease in Malaysia.
Assessing weather effects on dengue disease in Malaysia.
复制标题
DOI：
10.3390/ijerph10126319
复制
发表时间：
2013-11-26
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Lakes T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cheong YL;Burkart K;Leitão PJ;Lakes T
近年来，登革热病例在全球范围内一直在增加，特别是在马来西亚，但人们对天气对确定登革热对人口的短期风险的影响知之甚少。本文的目的是估计2008年至2010年在雪兰莪州，吉隆坡和普特拉贾亚，马来西亚的天气对登革热疾病的非线性时间效应。我们选择的天气参数与泊松广义加性模型，然后评估最低温度，双周累计降雨量和风速对登革热病例的影响，同时调整趋势，一周中的一天和一年中的一周，使用分布式非线性滞后模型。我们发现，登革热病例的相对风险与最低温度升高正相关，累积百分比变化为11.92%（95%CI：4.41-32.19），从25.4 °C到26.5 °C，最高效应延迟51天。增加双周累积降雨量对登革热病例有积极的强影响，累积百分比变化为21.45%（95%CI：8.96，51.37），从215 mm到302 mm，最高效果延迟26-28天。风速与登革热病例呈负相关。估计的滞后效应可在登革热预警系统中加以调整，以协助制定病媒控制和预防计划。
The number of dengue cases has been increasing on a global level in recent years, and particularly so in Malaysia, yet little is known about the effects of weather for identifying the short-term risk of dengue for the population. The aim of this paper is to estimate the weather effects on dengue disease accounting for non-linear temporal effects in Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya, Malaysia, from 2008 to 2010. We selected the weather parameters with a Poisson generalized additive model, and then assessed the effects of minimum temperature, bi-weekly accumulated rainfall and wind speed on dengue cases using a distributed non-linear lag model while adjusting for trend, day-of-week and week of the year. We found that the relative risk of dengue cases is positively associated with increased minimum temperature at a cumulative percentage change of 11.92% (95% CI: 4.41–32.19), from 25.4 °C to 26.5 °C, with the highest effect delayed by 51 days. Increasing bi-weekly accumulated rainfall had a positively strong effect on dengue cases at a cumulative percentage change of 21.45% (95% CI: 8.96, 51.37), from 215 mm to 302 mm, with the highest effect delayed by 26–28 days. The wind speed is negatively associated with dengue cases. The estimated lagged effects can be adapted in the dengue early warning system to assist in vector control and prevention plan.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
15.8
作者：
Cazelles B;Chavez M;McMichael AJ;Hales S
通讯作者：
Hales S
DOI：
10.1080/09603120400012868
发表时间：
2004-12-01
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Depradine, CA;Lovell, EH
通讯作者：
Lovell, EH
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Adams, Ben;Boots, Michael
通讯作者：
Boots, Michael
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
FOCKS, DA;HAILE, DG;MOUNT, GA
通讯作者：
MOUNT, GA
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Barrera R;Amador M;MacKay AJ
通讯作者：
MacKay AJ