Application of Markov models to predict changes in nasal carriage of Staphylococcus aureus among industrial hog operations workers.
Application of Markov models to predict changes in nasal carriage of Staphylococcus aureus among industrial hog operations workers.
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DOI：
10.1080/15459624.2022.2025998
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发表时间：
2022-03
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Ramachandran G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Edmondson MG;Heaney CD;Davis MF;Ramachandran G
工业生猪作业(IHO)的工人可能会职业性地接触金黄色葡萄球菌，并可能在他们的鼻孔中携带细菌。随着时间的推移，工人可能会持续携带金黄色葡萄球菌或在不同的鼻部携带状态之间转换：没有鼻部携带、鼻部携带与人类相关的菌株、鼻部携带与牲畜相关的菌株。我们的目标是开发一个数学模型来预测随着时间的推移，处于每种鼻腔运输状态的IHO工人的比例，考虑到IHO工人口罩的使用。我们还检查了数据充分性要求，以便为产生可靠预测的模型的开发提供信息。我们使用了来自北卡罗来纳州101名IHO工人的鼻部携带数据，每两周采样一次，持续4个月，建立了一个三态马尔可夫模型，描述了IHO工人鼻部携带状态在研究期间和稳定状态下的转移动态。我们还根据掩码的使用对模型进行分层，以检查其对员工过渡动态的影响。如果情况保持不变，我们的模型预测，49.1%的工人将没有鼻腔携带金黄色葡萄球菌，28.2%的工人将携带牲畜相关的金黄色葡萄球菌，22.7%的工人将在稳定状态下携带与人类相关的金黄色葡萄球菌。在分层模型中，在稳定状态下，只报告偶尔使用口罩(80%的时间)的工人与持续使用口罩(≥80%的时间)的工人相比，患有牲畜相关的金黄色葡萄球菌鼻腔携带者的预测比例(39.2%)更高(15.5%)。这些结果支持流行病学证据，即口罩的使用可能会减少IHO工作人员鼻部携带与牲畜相关的金黄色葡萄球菌。我们还评估了多少纵向数据足以创建一个马尔可夫模型，准确地预测队列中未来的鼻腔运输状态。为此，我们创建了多个模型，保留了部分收集的数据，并将模型预测与观测数据进行了比较。我们的数据充分性分析表明，使用数据集的一小部分(大约1/3的观测数据)创建的模型与使用所有观测数据点创建的模型执行类似。数学模型，如马尔可夫模型，对于预测工人随时间的健康状态可能具有重要的实用价值，即使在有限的纵向抽样数据可用时也是如此。
Industrial hog operation (IHO) workers can be occupationally exposed to Staphylococcus aureus and may carry the bacteria in their nares. Workers may persistently carry S. aureus or transition between different states of nasal carriage over time: no nasal carriage, nasal carriage of a human-associated strain, and nasal carriage of a livestock-associated strain. We aimed to develop a mathematical model to predict the proportion of IHO workers in each nasal carriage state over time, accounting for IHO worker mask use. We also examined data sufficiency requirements to inform development of models that produce reliable predictions. We used nasal carriage data from a cohort of 101 IHO workers in North Carolina, sampled every two weeks for 4 months, to develop a three state Markov model that describes the transition dynamics of IHO worker nasal carriage status over the study period and at steady state. We also stratified models by mask use to examine its impact on worker transition dynamics. If conditions remain the same, our models predicted that 49.1% of workers will have no nasal carriage of S. aureus, 28.2% will carry livestock-associated S. aureus, and 22.7% will carry human-associated S. aureus at steady state. In stratified models, at steady state, workers who reported only occasional mask (<80% of the time) use had a higher predicted proportion of individuals with livestock-associated S. aureus nasal carriage (39.2%) compared to workers who consistently (≥80% of the time) wore a mask (15.5%). These results support epidemiological evidence that mask use may reduce IHO worker nasal carriage of livestock-associated S. aureus. We also evaluated how much longitudinal data is sufficient to create a Markov model that accurately predicts future nasal carriage states among the cohort. We did so by creating multiple models that withheld portions of the collected data and compared the model predictions to observed data. Our data sufficiency analysis indicated that models created with a small subset of the dataset (approximately 1/3 of observed data) perform similarly to models created using all observed data points. Mathematical models, such as Markov models, may have important utility to predict worker health status over time, even when limited longitudinal sampling data are available.
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影响因子：
33.9
作者：
Kourtis, Athena P.;Hatfield, Kelly;Cardo, Denise
通讯作者：
Cardo, Denise
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Nadimpalli M;Stewart JR;Pierce E;Pisanic N;Love DC;Hall D;Larsen J;Carroll KC;Tekle T;Perl TM;Heaney CD
通讯作者：
Heaney CD
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Nadimpalli, Maya L.;Stewart, Jill K.;Heaney, Christopher D.
通讯作者：
Heaney, Christopher D.
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Randad, Pranay R.;Dillen, Carly A.;Heaney, Christopher D.
通讯作者：
Heaney, Christopher D.
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Simpson, Kit N.;Strassburger, Alvin;Rajagopalan, Rukmini
通讯作者：
Rajagopalan, Rukmini