Global air quality and health co-benefits of mitigating near-term climate change through methane and black carbon emission controls.
Global air quality and health co-benefits of mitigating near-term climate change through methane and black carbon emission controls.
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DOI：
10.1289/ehp.1104301
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发表时间：
2012-06
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Ramanathan V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anenberg SC;Schwartz J;Shindell D;Amann M;Faluvegi G;Klimont Z;Janssens-Maenhout G;Pozzoli L;Van Dingenen R;Vignati E;Emberson L;Muller NZ;West JJ;Williams M;Demkine V;Hicks WK;Kuylenstierna J;Raes F;Ramanathan V
背景资料：对流层臭氧和黑碳（BC）是细颗粒物（空气动力学直径≤ 2.5 µm; PM2.5）的一种成分，与过早死亡有关，它们破坏了全球和区域气候。目的：我们检查了针对BC和臭氧前体甲烷的14项具体排放控制措施的空气质量和健康效益，之所以选择这些措施，是因为它们有可能降低未来20-40年气候变化的速度。研究方法：我们使用两种成分气候模型模拟了缓解措施对室外PM2.5和臭氧浓度的影响，并使用流行病学推导的浓度响应函数计算了与PM2.5和臭氧相关的过早死亡相关的变化。结果如下：我们估计，对于PM2.5和臭氧，全面实施这些措施可以分别将全球人口加权平均表面浓度降低23-34%和7-17%，并在2030年避免全球每年60 - 440万和0.04-0.52百万人过早死亡。据估计，超过80%的健康益处发生在亚洲。我们估计，如果实施所有BC和甲烷缓解措施，BC缓解措施将实现约98%的死亡，这是由于BC减少和非甲烷臭氧前体和有机碳排放的相关减少以及PM2.5相对于臭氧的更强的死亡率关系。尽管存在较大的不确定性，但这些估计值和结论并不强烈依赖于浓度-响应函数的假设。结论：除了气候效益外，我们的研究结果还表明，甲烷和BC排放控制措施将对全球空气质量和公共健康产生重大的共同效益，可能扭转非洲和南亚，西亚和中亚空气污染浓度和死亡率上升的趋势。这些预计的效益与二氧化碳减缓措施无关。BC措施的好处被低估了，因为我们没有考虑减少室内暴露的好处，因为室外暴露估计受到模型空间分辨率的限制。
Background: Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM ≤ 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter; PM2.5), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate. Objectives: We examined the air quality and health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20–40 years. Methods: We simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM2.5- and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration–response functions. Results: We estimated that, for PM2.5 and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23–34% and 7–17% and avoid 0.6–4.4 and 0.04–0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM2.5 relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration–response function. Conclusions: In addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by model spatial resolution.
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