How can China reach its CO2 intensity reduction targets by 2020? A regional allocation based on equity and development

How can China reach its CO2 intensity reduction targets by 2020? A regional allocation based on equity and development
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中国如何才能实现2020年二氧化碳强度减排目标?

DOI:
10.1016/j.enpol.2011.01.063
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发表时间:
2011-05
期刊:
影响因子:
9
通讯作者:
Le-LeZou
Le-LeZou
中科院分区:
经济学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Kai Wang;Wen-Jing Yi;JieGuo;Yi-MingWei;Le-LeZou

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2009年底,中国政府承诺到2020年将单位国内生产总值(GDP)的二氧化碳排放量减少到2005年水平的40%至45%。这就提出了如何在区域范围内分配二氧化碳减排目标以实现国家减排目标的问题。为实现这一目标,可从以下几个方面加以考虑:公平原则、“共同但有区别的责任”、强度削减目标的实现、各省之间的经济差异和削减潜力。本文选取人均GDP、化石燃料相关CO2累计排放量和单位工业增加值能耗分别作为减排能力、减排责任和减排潜力的指标。基于这三个指标,提出了一个综合指标,并建立了强度分配模型。由于决策者在分配减排负担时可能有不同的偏好,因此我们为指标分配了不同的权重,并使用聚类分析对结果进行了分析。在确定如何分担负担时,也可结合国家区域发展战略考虑以下方面:各区域的减排潜力;计划的实施潜力;以及推广高效低碳经济发展模式。
In late 2009, the Chinese government committed to cut its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 40% to 45% of 2005 levels by 2020. This has raised the issue of how to allocate the CO2reduction target regionally to meet the national reduction target. To meet this objective, the following aspects may be taken into consideration: equity principles, ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’; intensity reduction target fulfillment; and economic difference and reduction potential among provinces. This paper selects per capita GDP, accumulated fossil fuel related CO2emissions and energy consumption per unit of industrial added value as indicators for emission reduction capacity, responsibility and potential, respectively. Based on these three indicators, a comprehensive index is developed and an intensity allocation model constructed. As decision makers may have different preferences when allocating the reduction burden, we allocate different weights to the indicators, analyzing the results using cluster analysis. The following aspects may also be considered together with the national regional development strategy to determine how to share the burden: the reduction potential of various regions; implementation potential of the plans; and promotion of a highly efficient low carbon economic development model.
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