Rationalizing systematic discrepancies between election outcomes and opinion polls
Rationalizing systematic discrepancies between election outcomes and opinion polls
复制标题
合理化选举结果和民意调查之间的系统性差异
DOI：
10.1088/1742-5468/aca0e7
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Gamberi L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gamberi L
布拉德利效应是指当候选人没有表现出主流意识形态、性别或种族特征时，民意调查与实际选举结果之间的差异。这种效应在1982年加州州长选举中首次被观察到，尽管黑人民主党候选人汤姆布拉德利在民意调查中领先，但他还是遭受了重大损失。有人认为，民意调查的受访者往往掩盖他们真正的政治偏好，并赞成一般认为更社会接受的东西。我们提出了一个完全可解的统计力学模型，它允许定量探索这种现象。该模型包括三个主要成分：（一）个人倾向于将他们的真实的偏好与他人宣布的（公共）意见相一致，（二）一个术语占个人诚信因素，这促使选民在他们的公共和私人意见之间保持一致，以及（三）自我监督的组成部分，调整个人受社会规范影响并希望公开遵守社会规范的力量。我们观察到出现的秩序在广泛的参数范围内的模型，并讨论了噪声的影响隐藏和公众偏好之间的相关性。最后，我们提出了一个应用该模型的预测选举结果。
The Bradley effect concerns the discrepancy between opinion polls and actual election outcomes that emerges when candidates do not exhibit mainstream ideological, sexual or racial features. This effect was first observed during the 1982 election for the Governor of California that resulted in a significant loss for the black Democratic candidate, Tom Bradley, despite him being ahead in polls. It has been argued that poll respondents tend to mask their true political preference and favour of what is generally considered more socially acceptable. We propose an exactly solvable statistical mechanical model, which allows for a quantitative exploration of this phenomenon. The model includes three main ingredients:(i) the tendency of individuals to align their real preference to the declared (public) opinions of others,(ii) a term accounting for an individual integrity factor, which induces voters to be consistent between their public and private opinions, and (iii) a self-monitoring component, which tunes the strength by which an individual is affected by and wishes to publicly conform to social norms. We observe the emergence of order in a wide range of parameters of the model and discuss the effect of noise on the correlation between hidden and public preference. Finally, we present an application of this model to the prediction of election outcomes.
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