Mathematical modelling of the dynamics and containment of COVID-19 in Ukraine.
Mathematical modelling of the dynamics and containment of COVID-19 in Ukraine.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-020-76710-1
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发表时间：
2020-11-12
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Brovchenko I
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kyrychko YN;Blyuss KB;Brovchenko I
由新型SARS-CoV-2冠状病毒引起的COVID-19疾病给公共卫生带来了前所未有的挑战，在全球范围内造成了大量病例和死亡。在缺乏有效疫苗的情况下，不同国家采用了各种其他类型的非药物干预措施来遏制这种疾病的传播，包括隔离和封锁，追踪、追踪和隔离受感染的个人，以及社会疏远措施。这些和其他疾病控制和预防措施的有效性在很大程度上取决于对疾病动态的良好理解，而稳健的数学模型在预测其未来动态方面发挥着重要作用。在本文中，我们将重点关注欧洲最大的国家之一乌克兰，并使用表征疾病临床特征的参数的最新数据，开发了COVID-19动态的数学模型。为了提高准确性，我们的模型包括年龄分层的疾病参数，以及年龄和位置特定的接触矩阵来表示接触。我们表明，该模型能够为病例和死亡的数量和年龄分布提供准确的短期预测。我们还模拟了不同的封锁情景，结果表明，在减轻疾病负担方面，减少工作接触比减少学校接触或对60岁以上的人实施隔离更有效。
COVID-19 disease caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has already brought unprecedented challenges for public health and resulted in huge numbers of cases and deaths worldwide. In the absence of effective vaccine, different countries have employed various other types of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain the spread of this disease, including quarantines and lockdowns, tracking, tracing and isolation of infected individuals, and social distancing measures. Effectiveness of these and other measures of disease containment and prevention to a large degree depends on good understanding of disease dynamics, and robust mathematical models play an important role in forecasting its future dynamics. In this paper we focus on Ukraine, one of Europe’s largest countries, and develop a mathematical model of COVID-19 dynamics, using latest data on parameters characterising clinical features of disease. For improved accuracy, our model includes age-stratified disease parameters, as well as age- and location-specific contact matrices to represent contacts. We show that the model is able to provide an accurate short-term forecast for the numbers and age distribution of cases and deaths. We also simulated different lockdown scenarios, and the results suggest that reducing work contacts is more efficient at reducing the disease burden than reducing school contacts, or implementing shielding for people over 60.
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