Job creation in response to Japan’s energy transition towards deep mitigation: An extension of partial equilibrium integrated assessment models
Job creation in response to Japan’s energy transition towards deep mitigation: An extension of partial equilibrium integrated assessment models
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为应对日本向深度缓解能源转型而创造的就业机会：部分综合评估模型的扩展
DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119178
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Wang Jiayang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ju Yiyi;Sugiyama Masahiro;Kato Etsushi;Oshiro Ken;Wang Jiayang
日本到2050年实现碳中和的能源转型将涉及可再生能源的开发和化石燃料能源的转变。迫切需要调查国内就业水平，以应对这种能源转型及其对不同脱碳情景的影响。我们将更全面地反映发电结构和容量的部分均衡（PE）综合评估模型（IAM）（基于自下而上的建模方法）的结果，引入到投入产出（IO）框架（基于自上而下的建模方法）中，该框架是绘制宏观经济中部门间交易的有效工具。通过这种方法，可以研究不同的日本国家脱碳方案之间的不确定性。我们估计了制造业、建筑业、电力供应业和所有其他部门因投资引进可再生能源容量和所有发电活动而创造的就业机会。结果显示：i）2030年可能会出现创造就业机会总数的正数（例如，（2）在2050年减排80%的默认情景下，可再生能源相关活动的制造和建设创造的就业机会将超过采矿、火力发电和火力发电活动的就业损失;（3）然而，这种就业机会在2050年将大幅增加，导致日本国内可能出现劳动力短缺;到2050年，非电力和制造业的就业机会可能超过30%。与可再生能源潜力高的路径相比，日本的长期劳动力供应问题可以在低能源服务需求路径下得到缓解。
Energy transition towards carbon neutrality by 2050 in Japan will involve renewable energy development and a shift from fossil fuel energy. Investigating the domestic employment level in response to such energy transition and their implications of different decarbonization scenarios is urgently needed. We introduced the results from partial equilibrium (PE) integrated assessment models (IAMs), which provided a more comprehensive representation of power generation mix and capacity (based on a bottom-up modeling approach), to the input–output (IO) framework, which served as an efficient tool for mapping inter-sectoral transactions in the macroeconomy (based on a top-down modeling approach). By this approach, the uncertainties among different Japan national decarbonization scenarios can be investigated. We estimated the job creation in manufacturing sectors, construction sectors, electricity supply sectors, and all other sectors induced by the investment in the introduction of renewable energy capacity introduction and all power generation activities. The results show that: i) positive numbers in total job creation may occur in 2030 (e.g., under the default scenario reaching 80% emission reduction by 2050), as the job creation in the manufacture and construction of renewable related activities will exceed the job losses in mining, construction of thermal power, and thermal power generation activities; ii) however, such job creation will dramatically increase in 2050, leading to possible workforce shortages within Japan; iii) over 30% of the employment in non-electricity and manufacture sectors may be induced overseas in 2050. Compared with high renewable potential pathways, the long-term labor supply issues could be eased under low energy service demand pathways in Japan.
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