Impact of climate change on ambient ozone level and mortality in southeastern United States.
Impact of climate change on ambient ozone level and mortality in southeastern United States.
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph7072866
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发表时间：
2010-07
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Fuentes M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chang HH;Zhou J;Fuentes M
人们越来越关注量化气候变化对健康的影响。本文探讨了未来臭氧水平对美国东南部 19 个城市社区非意外死亡的风险。我们提出了一个建模框架，集成了气候模型输出、历史气象和臭氧观测数据以及健康监测数据库的数据。我们首先对 2000 年观测到的最大每日 8 小时平均臭氧浓度与气象测量之间的关系进行了建模。然后使用北美区域气候变化评估计划的校准气候模型输出数据来预测 2041 年至 2050 年期间的未来臭氧浓度。 1987 年至 2000 年期间每日社区层面的死亡率数据来自国家死亡率、发病率和空气污染研究。在控制温度、露点温度和季节性的情况下，使用多地点时间序列设计来估计与夏季短期暴露于环境臭氧相关的相对风险。我们估计，仅由于气候变化，2040 年代的平均臭氧浓度比 2000 年增加了 0.43 ppb（95% PI：0.14-0.75）。这相当于由于未来臭氧水平的增加，研究社区的死亡率增加了 0.01%，并且有 45.2 人（95% PI：3.26-87.1）过早死亡。
There is a growing interest in quantifying the health impacts of climate change. This paper examines the risks of future ozone levels on non-accidental mortality across 19 urban communities in Southeastern United States. We present a modeling framework that integrates data from climate model outputs, historical meteorology and ozone observations, and a health surveillance database. We first modeled present-day relationships between observed maximum daily 8-hour average ozone concentrations and meteorology measured during the year 2000. Future ozone concentrations for the period 2041 to 2050 were then projected using calibrated climate model output data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Daily community-level mortality counts for the period 1987 to 2000 were obtained from the National Mortality, Morbidity and Air Pollution Study. Controlling for temperature, dew-point temperature, and seasonality, relative risks associated with short-term exposure to ambient ozone during the summer months were estimated using a multi-site time series design. We estimated an increase of 0.43 ppb (95% PI: 0.14–0.75) in average ozone concentration during the 2040’s compared to 2000 due to climate change alone. This corresponds to a 0.01% increase in mortality rate and 45.2 (95% PI: 3.26–87.1) premature deaths in the study communities attributable to the increase in future ozone level.
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影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Kalkstein, LS;Greene, JS
通讯作者：
Greene, JS
DOI：
10.1186/1476-069x-8-s1-s8
发表时间：
2009-12-21
期刊：
Environmental health : a global access science source
影响因子：
--
作者：
Doherty RM;Heal MR;Wilkinson P;Pattenden S;Vieno M;Armstrong B;Atkinson R;Chalabi Z;Kovats S;Milojevic A;Stevenson DS
通讯作者：
Stevenson DS
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Gelfand, AE;Kim, HJ;Banerjee, S
通讯作者：
Banerjee, S
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Bell, Michelle L.;Goldberg, Richard;Patz, Jonathan A.
通讯作者：
Patz, Jonathan A.
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Bell, ML;Dominici, F;Samet, JM
通讯作者：
Samet, JM