Characterizing the contribution of high temperatures to child undernourishment in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Characterizing the contribution of high temperatures to child undernourishment in Sub-Saharan Africa.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-020-74942-9
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发表时间：
2020-11-02
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Anttila-Hughes J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baker RE;Anttila-Hughes J
尽管全球经济状况有所改善，但儿童营养不良近年来有所增加，约有7.5%的儿童遭受消瘦之苦。气候变化预计将加剧粮食不安全，增加对营养的潜在威胁，特别是在大多数营养不良儿童生活的低收入和中低收入国家。我们将来自撒哈拉以南非洲30个国家的192,000名儿童的人体测量数据与历史气候数据结合起来，直接估计温度对关键营养不良结果的影响。我们首先记录了儿童体重与各地区平均气温之间的强烈负相关关系。然后，我们利用天气条件的变化来从统计上确定在多个时间尺度上气温上升对儿童营养的影响。调查月份、调查前一年和儿童一生中气温的上升导致儿童营养指标的急剧下降。我们发现，终身尺度效应解释了体重和温度之间大部分区域水平的负相关关系，表明高温可能是儿童营养的制约因素。我们使用CMIP5当地温度预测来预测未来变暖的影响，并发现营养不良的人数根据地点的不同而大幅增加：到2100年，西非的消瘦流行率将增加37%，中非和东非将增加25%。
Despite improvements to global economic conditions, child undernourishment has increased in recent years, with approximately 7.5% of children suffering from wasting. Climate change is expected to worsen food insecurity and increase potential threats to nutrition, particularly in low-income and lower-middle income countries where the majority of undernourished children live. We combine anthropometric data for 192,000 children from 30 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with historical climate data to directly estimate the effect of temperature on key malnutrition outcomes. We first document a strong negative relationship between child weight and average temperature across regions. We then exploit variation in weather conditions to statistically identify the effects of increased temperatures over multiple time scales on child nutrition. Increased temperatures in the month of survey, year leading up to survey and child lifetime lead to meaningful declines in acute measures of child nutrition. We find that the lifetime-scale effects explain most of the region-level negative relationship between weight and temperature, indicating that high temperatures may be a constraint on child nutrition. We use CMIP5 local temperature projections to project the impact of future warming, and find substantial increases in malnutrition depending on location: western Africa would see a 37% increase in the prevalence of wasting by 2100, and central and eastern Africa 25%.
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影响因子：
10.7
作者：
Deschenes, Olivier;Greenstone, Michael;Guryan, Jonathan
通讯作者：
Guryan, Jonathan
影响因子：
1.3
作者：
Dorelien, Audrey M.
通讯作者：
Dorelien, Audrey M.
DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(14)62114-0
发表时间：
2015-07-25
期刊：
Lancet (London, England)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Gasparrini A;Guo Y;Hashizume M;Lavigne E;Zanobetti A;Schwartz J;Tobias A;Tong S;Rocklöv J;Forsberg B;Leone M;De Sario M;Bell ML;Guo YL;Wu CF;Kan H;Yi SM;de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M;Saldiva PH;Honda Y;Kim H;Armstrong B
通讯作者：
Armstrong B
DOI：
10.1146/annurev-resource-100815-095343
发表时间：
2016-01-01
期刊：
ANNUAL REVIEW OF RESOURCE ECONOMICS, VOL 8
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hsiang, Solomon
通讯作者：
Hsiang, Solomon
影响因子：
8.2
作者：
Barreca, Alan;Clay, Karen;Shapiro, Joseph S.
通讯作者：
Shapiro, Joseph S.