Assessments of Impacts of Climate and Forest Change on Water Resources Using SWAT Model in a Subboreal Watershed in Northern Da Hinggan Mountains
Assessments of Impacts of Climate and Forest Change on Water Resources Using SWAT Model in a Subboreal Watershed in Northern Da Hinggan Mountains
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利用SWAT模型评估大兴安岭北部亚寒带流域气候和森林变化对水资源的影响
DOI：
10.3390/w12061565
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发表时间：
2020-05
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Cai Tijiu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yu Zhengxiang;Man Xiuling;Duan Liangliang;Cai Tijiu
河流中的水资源对人类至关重要。在文献中，河流的流量被证明是受气候变化的显着影响，特别是在北方和亚北方气候区。大兴安岭是黑龙江、嫩江的源头，是下游农业和湿地灌溉的重要水源。利用塔河流域44年水文、气候和森林动态资料，采用SWAT模型定量分析了气候和森林变化对径流深的影响。同时，利用SWAT模式，对全球气候模式（GCMs）在4种典型浓度路径（RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 6.0和RCP 8.5）下的降水和温度降尺度预报进行了强迫模拟，探讨了未来气候变化对塔河径流的影响。结果表明，与1972-1982年相比，1984-1994年森林生物量减少了17.6%，年平均径流深增加了16.6%。相反，从1995-2005年到2006-2016年的造林，平均森林生物量增加了9.8%，导致平均径流深减少了11.9%。1984-1994年期间和2006-2016年期间，树种组成的变化减少了13.3%的平均年径流深。与基准年相比（2006-2016年），GCM对21世纪中叶的预测表明，在RCP 2.6下，年平均温度和降水量预计将增加-0.50 °C和43 mm，在RCP 4.5下，年平均温度和降水量预计将增加0.38 °C和23 mm，在RCP 6.0下为0.67 °C和36 mm，在RCP 8.5下为1.00 °C和10 mm。SWAT模型的模拟结果表明，与基准年相比，年径流深将增加18.1%（RCP 2.6），11.8%（RCP 4.5），23.6%（RCP 6.0）和11.5%（RCP 8.5）。这种增加的径流量主要是由于4月，7月，8月，9月和10月的增加，这与降水预测一致。我们的结论是，未来的气候变化将增加河流的水资源，从而抵消可能造成的森林恢复径流量的下降。本研究的结果可能有助于了解气候和森林变化对径流的影响，并为管理者和规划者提供合理的策略，以减轻未来气候变化对亚寒带森林流域水资源的影响。
Water resources from rivers are essential to humans. The discharge of rivers is demonstrated to be significantly affected by climate change in the literature, particularly in the boreal and subboreal climate zones. The Da Hinggan Mountains in subboreal northeast China form the headwaters of the Heilongjiang River and the Nenjiang River, which are important water resources for irrigation of downstream agriculture and wetlands. In this study, long-term (44 years) hydrologic, climate and forest dynamics data from the Tahe were analyzed using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to quantify the effects of climate and forest change on runoff depth. Meanwhile, downscaled precipitation and temperature predictions that arose from global climate models (GCMs) under four representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) were forced using the SWAT model to investigate the climate change impacts on the Tahe River flows in the future. The results indicated that compared with the 1972–1982 period, the forest biomass in the 1984–1994 period was reduced by 17.6%, resulting in an increase of 16.6% in mean annual runoff depth. On the contrary, with reforestation from the 1995–2005 period to the 2006–2016 period, the mean forest biomass was increased by 9.8%, resulting in the mean runoff depth reduction of 11.9%. The tree species composition shift reduced mean annual runoff depth of 13.3% between the 1984–1994 period and the 2006–2016 period. Compared with base years (2006–2016), projections of GCM in the middle of the 21st century indicated that both mean annual temperature and precipitation were expected to increase by −0.50 °C and 43 mm under RCP 2.6, 0.38 °C and 23 mm under RCP 4.5, 0.67 °C and 36 mm under RCP 6.0 and 1.00 °C and 10 mm under RCP 8.5. Simulated results of the SWAT model showed that annual runoff depth would increase by 18.1% (RCP 2.6), 11.8% (RCP 4.5), 23.6% (RCP 6.0), and 11.5% (RCP 8.5), compared to the base years. Such increased runoff was mainly attributed to the increase in April, July, August, September and October, which were consistent with the precipitation prediction. We concluded that the future climate change will increase the water resources from the river, thereby offsetting the possible decline in runoff caused by the forest recovery. The findings of this study might be useful for understanding the impacts of climate and forest change on runoff and provide a reasonable strategy for managers and planners to mitigate the impact of future climate change on water resources in the subboreal forested watersheds.
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影响因子：
4.3
作者：
B. Uniyal;M. Jha;A. K. Verma
通讯作者：
B. Uniyal;M. Jha;A. K. Verma
影响因子：
2.8
作者：
Wenbin Liu;Tijiu Cai;G. Fu;Aijing Zhang;Changming Liu;H. Yu
通讯作者：
Wenbin Liu;Tijiu Cai;G. Fu;Aijing Zhang;Changming Liu;H. Yu
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.006
发表时间：
2016-02
期刊：
The Science of the total environment
影响因子：
--
作者：
H. Sellami;S. Benabdallah;I. La Jeunesse;M. Vanclooster
通讯作者：
H. Sellami;S. Benabdallah;I. La Jeunesse;M. Vanclooster
气候变化和人类活动对三峡水库入库流量的影响
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Zhang Yu;Zhong Ping an;Chen Juan;Bing Jianping;Xu Dinghao;Wang Manlin
通讯作者：
Wang Manlin
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
L. Duan;Xiu-ling Man;B. Kurylyk;Tijiu Cai;Qiang Li
通讯作者：
L. Duan;Xiu-ling Man;B. Kurylyk;Tijiu Cai;Qiang Li