Sustainable pathways towards climate and biodiversity goals in the UK: the importance of managing land-use synergies and trade-offs.
Sustainable pathways towards climate and biodiversity goals in the UK: the importance of managing land-use synergies and trade-offs.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s11625-022-01242-8
复制
发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Obersteiner, Michael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Smith, Alison C.;Harrison, Paula A.;Leach, Nicholas J.;Godfray, H. Charles J.;Hall, Jim W.;Jones, Sarah M.;Gall, Sarah S.;Obersteiner, Michael
英国退出欧盟后，正在对农业和环境政策进行根本性审查和重新设计。英国政府和权力下放政府认识到，当前的土地利用是不可持续的，现在有一个前所未有的机会来制定更好的土地战略，以充分应对气候变化、生物多样性丧失和可持续发展等相互关联的挑战。本文提供了与英国政策制定者共同创建的到本世纪中叶的三种路径（当前趋势、可持续中等雄心和可持续高雄心）的证据。这些路径被应用于国家综合粮食和土地利用模型（FABLE计算器），以探索在有限的土地供应和平衡国家和全球层面粮食供需的限制下实现多个可持续发展目标之间的潜在协同作用和权衡。结果表明，在当前趋势路径下，所有未受保护的开放自然土地将转变为城市、农业和林地，其结果是从2030年起植树目标无法实现。相比之下，这两条可持续途径说明了饮食改变、农业生产力提高和废物减少如何能够腾出土地用于自然恢复和碳封存。这使得能够向可持续粮食和土地利用系统过渡，该系统提供净碳汇，其中高达 44% 的土地能够支持生物多样性保护。我们强调关键的权衡和协同作用，这对于设计和实施新兴国家政策非常重要。其中包括气候、粮食和生物多样性目标对饮食转变的强烈依赖，农业生产力的可持续提高，改进的土地利用设计以保护和恢复自然，以及迅速减少粮食损失和浪费。在线版本包含可在 10.1007/s11625-022-01242-8 获取的补充材料。
Agricultural and environmental policies are being fundamentally reviewed and redesigned in the UK following its exit from the European Union. The UK government and the Devolved Administrations recognise that current land use is not sustainable and that there is now an unprecedented opportunity to define a better land strategy that responds fully to the interconnected challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss and sustainable development. This paper presents evidence from three pathways (current trends, sustainable medium ambition, and sustainable high ambition) to mid-century that were co-created with UK policymakers. The pathways were applied to a national integrated food and land-use model (the FABLE calculator) to explore potential synergies and trade-offs between achieving multiple sustainability targets under limited land availability and constraints to balance food supply and demand at national and global levels. Results show that under the Current Trends pathway all unprotected open natural land would be converted to urban, agriculture and afforested land, with the consequence that from 2030 onwards tree planting targets could not be met. In contrast, the two sustainable pathways illustrate how dietary change, agricultural productivity improvements and waste reduction can free up land for nature recovery and carbon sequestration. This enables a transition to a sustainable food and land-use system that provides a net carbon sink with up to 44% of land able to support biodiversity conservation. We highlight key trade-offs and synergies, which are important to consider for designing and implementing emerging national policies. These include the strong dependence of climate, food and biodiversity targets on dietary shifts, sustainable improvements in agricultural productivity, improved land-use design for protecting and restoring nature, and rapid reductions in food loss and waste. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-022-01242-8.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
11.6
作者：
Beillouin, Damien;Cardinael, Remi;Demenois, Julien
通讯作者：
Demenois, Julien
影响因子：
6
作者：
Cantarello, Elena;Newton, Adrian C.;Hill, Ross A.
通讯作者：
Hill, Ross A.
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Holman, Ian P.;Harrison, Paula A.;Metzger, Marc J.
通讯作者：
Metzger, Marc J.
影响因子：
7.1
作者：
Kay, Sonja;Rega, Carlo;Herzog, Felix
通讯作者：
Herzog, Felix
影响因子：
27.6
作者：
Gerten, Dieter;Heck, Vera;Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
通讯作者：
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim