Optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic: controlled sanitary deconfinement in Portugal.
Optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic: controlled sanitary deconfinement in Portugal.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-021-83075-6
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发表时间：
2021-02-10
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Mira J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Silva CJ;Cruz C;Torres DFM;Muñuzuri AP;Carballosa A;Area I;Nieto JJ;Fonseca-Pinto R;Passadouro R;Santos ESD;Abreu W;Mira J
新冠肺炎疫情已迫使政策制定者下令实施紧急隔离措施，以阻止疫情迅速大规模蔓延。然而，在这一阶段之后，社会正被迫在降低传染性的需要和重新开放经济的需要之间找到平衡。迄今的经验提供了关于大流行演变的数据，特别是制定了公共卫生措施后的人口动态。这使得制定预测数学模型能够预测政治决策的后果。在这里，我们提出了一个这样做的模型，并将其应用于葡萄牙的情况。通过一个由常微分方程组描述的确定性数学模型，我们拟合了新冠肺炎在中国的真实演变。在确定了愿意遵守社会限制的人口之后，通过分析社交媒体，我们将这种影响纳入到模型的一个版本中，使我们能够检查不同的情景。这是通过考虑通过复杂网络耦合的先前模型的蒙特卡罗离散版本来实现的。然后，我们应用最优控制理论，在保证较低的住院水平的同时，以最小的经济成本最大化地使回归正常生活的人数最大化，并将活动性感染人数最小化。这项工作可以测试流行病管理的各种情景(关闭经济部门、公民部分/全部遵守保护措施、重症监护病房床位数量等)，从而确保卫生系统的反应能力，从而成为公共卫生决策支持工具。
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced policy makers to decree urgent confinements to stop a rapid and massive contagion. However, after that stage, societies are being forced to find an equilibrium between the need to reduce contagion rates and the need to reopen their economies. The experience hitherto lived has provided data on the evolution of the pandemic, in particular the population dynamics as a result of the public health measures enacted. This allows the formulation of forecasting mathematical models to anticipate the consequences of political decisions. Here we propose a model to do so and apply it to the case of Portugal. With a mathematical deterministic model, described by a system of ordinary differential equations, we fit the real evolution of COVID-19 in this country. After identification of the population readiness to follow social restrictions, by analyzing the social media, we incorporate this effect in a version of the model that allow us to check different scenarios. This is realized by considering a Monte Carlo discrete version of the previous model coupled via a complex network. Then, we apply optimal control theory to maximize the number of people returning to “normal life” and minimizing the number of active infected individuals with minimal economical costs while warranting a low level of hospitalizations. This work allows testing various scenarios of pandemic management (closure of sectors of the economy, partial/total compliance with protection measures by citizens, number of beds in intensive care units, etc.), ensuring the responsiveness of the health system, thus being a public health decision support tool.
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影响因子：
2
作者：
LLOYD, AL
通讯作者：
LLOYD, AL
影响因子：
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作者：
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作者：
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