A modeling study to inform screening and testing interventions for the control of SARS-CoV-2 on university campuses.
A modeling study to inform screening and testing interventions for the control of SARS-CoV-2 on university campuses.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-021-85252-z
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发表时间：
2021-03-15
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Jenness SM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lopman B;Liu CY;Le Guillou A;Handel A;Lash TL;Isakov AP;Jenness SM
大学管理人员面临有关如何在2020-21学年安全返回和维护校园的学生，员工和教职员工的决定。大学生，教职员工和教职15,000名学生和15,000名教职员工，并提供一个灵活的建模框架，以在类似的学术机构中为隔离和隔离的策略提供筛查（无论症状如何）（症状）筛查和测试频率并进行了概率灵敏度分析。将累积事件减少了59％和87％，同时在传染性和测试之间以2，4和7天的延迟进行测试，导致累积减少的累积减少84％，74％和55％在员工和教职员工中观察到SARS-COV-2进入校园，可以通过测试，隔离，合同跟踪和隔离。每周都会大大减少疾病监测，还可以为诊断能力和隔离/隔离设施提供资源要求。
University administrators face decisions about how to safely return and maintain students, staff and faculty on campus throughout the 2020–21 school year. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) deterministic compartmental transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 among university students, staff, and faculty. Our goals were to inform planning at our own university, Emory University, a medium-sized university with around 15,000 students and 15,000 faculty and staff, and to provide a flexible modeling framework to inform the planning efforts at similar academic institutions. Control strategies of isolation and quarantine are initiated by screening (regardless of symptoms) or testing (of symptomatic individuals). We explored a range of screening and testing frequencies and performed a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We found that among students, monthly and weekly screening can reduce cumulative incidence by 59% and 87%, respectively, while testing with a 2-, 4- and 7-day delay between onset of infectiousness and testing results in an 84%, 74% and 55% reduction in cumulative incidence. Smaller reductions were observed among staff and faculty. Community-introduction of SARS-CoV-2 onto campus may be controlled with testing, isolation, contract tracing and quarantine. Screening would need to be performed at least weekly to have substantial reductions beyond disease surveillance. This model can also inform resource requirements of diagnostic capacity and isolation/quarantine facilities associated with different strategies.
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DOI：
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影响因子：
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DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30243-7
发表时间：
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期刊：
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影响因子：
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