Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities.
Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities.
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-016-1779-x
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发表时间：
2018-03
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Peng RD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anderson GB;Oleson KW;Jones B;Peng RD
一些罕见的热浪会对每日死亡率产生极大的影响；中度热浪的日常影响较小，但目前发生的频率要高得多，因此造成了巨大的综合影响。我们应用基于健康的模型来预测高死亡率热浪的趋势，包括预计高死亡率的所有热浪的比例，使用高死亡率热浪使死亡风险增加 ≥20% 的定义。我们针对国家大气研究中心社区地球系统模型的大中型集合版本，在两种气候变化情景（RCP4.5、RCP8.5）、两种人口变化情景（SSP3、SSP5）和三种社区适应高温情景（无、滞后、同步）下预测了 2061 年至 2080 年 82 个美国社区的这些趋势。与当前情况相比，除了同步适应之外的所有情况下，预计都会出现更多的高死亡率热浪，并且在所有情况下，预计人口暴露都会增加。在 RCP8.5 下的 82 个研究社区中，预计 20 年内至少会比 RCP4.5 假设不采取适应措施时多出现 7 次高死亡率热浪。然而，在所有情况下，高死亡率热浪预计仍将低于所有热浪和热浪暴露的 1%。预测受到适应情景的影响最大——从适应情景到滞后适应情景，或者从滞后适应情景到不适应情景，使高死亡率热浪的预计数量和暴露程度增加了一倍以上。根据我们的结果，与 RCP8.5 相比，在遵循 RCP4.5 且在更高水平的适应下，预计高死亡率热浪会更少，但预计高死亡率热浪在总热浪暴露中所占比例仍然很小。
Some rare heatwaves have extreme daily mortality impacts; moderate heatwaves have lower daily impacts but occur much more frequently at present and so account for large aggregated impacts. We applied health-based models to project trends in high-mortality heatwaves, including proportion of all heatwaves expected to be high-mortality, using the definition that a high-mortality heatwave increases mortality risk by ≥20 %. We projected these trends in 82 US communities in 2061–2080 under two scenarios of climate change (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), two scenarios of population change (SSP3, SSP5), and three scenarios of community adaptation to heat (none, lagged, on-pace) for large- and medium-ensemble versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Earth System Model. More high-mortality heatwaves were expected compared to present under all scenarios except on-pace adaptation, and population exposure was expected to increase under all scenarios. At least seven more high-mortality heatwaves were expected in a twenty-year period in the 82 study communities under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 when assuming no adaptation. However, high-mortality heatwaves were expected to remain <1 % of all heatwaves and heatwave exposure under all scenarios. Projections were most strongly influenced by the adaptation scenario— going from a scenario of on-pace to lagged adaptation or from lagged to no adaptation more than doubled the projected number of and exposure to high-mortality heatwaves. Based on our results, fewer high-mortality heatwaves are expected when following RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5 and under higher levels of adaptation, but high-mortality heatwaves are expected to remain a very small proportion of total heatwave exposure.
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影响因子：
--
作者：
Diffenbaugh NS;Ashfaq M;Scherer M
通讯作者：
Scherer M
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Huang C;Barnett AG;Xu Z;Chu C;Wang X;Turner LR;Tong S
通讯作者：
Tong S
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1322280111
发表时间：
2014-02-25
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Georgescu, Matei;Morefield, Philip E.;Weaver, Christopher P.
通讯作者：
Weaver, Christopher P.
DOI：
10.1002/joc.4612
发表时间：
2016-10-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Keellings, David
通讯作者：
Keellings, David
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Milojevic, Ai;Armstrong, Ben G.;Wilkinson, Paul
通讯作者：
Wilkinson, Paul