Comparison of statistical models for analyzing wheat yield time series.
Comparison of statistical models for analyzing wheat yield time series.
复制标题
分析小麦产量时间序列的统计模型的比较。
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0078615
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Makowski D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Michel L;Makowski D
到2050年，世界人口预计将超过90亿，人们越来越担心农业是否有能力养活这么多人口。关于粮食安全的前瞻性研究往往是根据国家和区域统计机构提供的产量时间序列估计的作物产量趋势。人们提出了各种类型的统计模型来分析产量时间序列，但这些模型的预测性能尚未得到详细的评价。在这项研究中，我们提出了八个统计模型来分析产量时间序列，并比较了它们在国家和地区尺度上预测小麦产量的能力，使用的数据由联合国粮食及农业组织和法国农业部提供。霍尔特-温特斯模型和动态线性模型表现得同样好，给出了最准确的小麦产量预测。然而，动态线性模型比霍尔特-温特斯模型有两个优势：它们可以用来回顾性地重建过去的产量趋势，并分析不确定性。动态线性模型的结果表明，许多国家的小麦产量停滞不前，但在欧洲、亚洲、非洲和美洲的一些国家，小麦产量的估计增长率仍保持在0.06吨/年以上，并且对几个主要小麦生产国的估计值具有高度不确定性。法国各地区的产量增长速度差异很大，这表明确定产量停滞的主要原因的努力应集中在次国家范围内。
The world's population is predicted to exceed nine billion by 2050 and there is increasing concern about the capability of agriculture to feed such a large population. Foresight studies on food security are frequently based on crop yield trends estimated from yield time series provided by national and regional statistical agencies. Various types of statistical models have been proposed for the analysis of yield time series, but the predictive performances of these models have not yet been evaluated in detail. In this study, we present eight statistical models for analyzing yield time series and compare their ability to predict wheat yield at the national and regional scales, using data provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and by the French Ministry of Agriculture. The Holt-Winters and dynamic linear models performed equally well, giving the most accurate predictions of wheat yield. However, dynamic linear models have two advantages over Holt-Winters models: they can be used to reconstruct past yield trends retrospectively and to analyze uncertainty. The results obtained with dynamic linear models indicated a stagnation of wheat yields in many countries, but the estimated rate of increase of wheat yield remained above 0.06 t ha−1 year−1 in several countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and America, and the estimated values were highly uncertain for several major wheat producing countries. The rate of yield increase differed considerably between French regions, suggesting that efforts to identify the main causes of yield stagnation should focus on a subnational scale.
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