Collaborative management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam increases economic benefits and resilience.
Collaborative management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam increases economic benefits and resilience.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-021-25877-w
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发表时间：
2021-09-23
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Harou JJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Basheer M;Nechifor V;Calzadilla A;Siddig K;Etichia M;Whittington D;Hulme D;Harou JJ
随着埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝的建设，尼罗河流域的水利基础设施景观正在发生变化。虽然这座大坝可以改善埃塞俄比亚及其邻国的电力供应，但埃塞俄比亚、苏丹和埃及之间在大坝运营方面缺乏共识。我们引入了一个新的建模框架，模拟尼罗河系统和埃及的宏观经济，河流系统和宏观经济之间的动态反馈。由于这两个系统在多年的模拟“共同进化”，我们称之为“共同进化”的建模框架。该框架被用来证明，一个协调的运营战略可以让埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝，以帮助满足水资源短缺期间在埃及的水资源需求，并增加水力发电和存储在埃塞俄比亚高流量。在这里，我们显示的水文和宏观经济表现，这一协调战略相比，类似于最近在华盛顿讨论的大坝运营的建议草案的战略。以动态、迭代、双向的方式整合河流系统和经济模型，可以评估河流系统干预措施的一些经济影响。在这里，作者使用这个框架来比较尼罗河的水资源管理策略，以寻求有效利用河流有限和紧张的水资源。
The landscape of water infrastructure in the Nile Basin is changing with the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Although this dam could improve electricity supply in Ethiopia and its neighbors, there is a lack of consensus between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on the dam operation. We introduce a new modeling framework that simulates the Nile River System and Egypt’s macroeconomy, with dynamic feedbacks between the river system and the macroeconomy. Because the two systems “coevolve” throughout multi-year simulations, we term this a “coevolutionary” modeling framework. The framework is used to demonstrate that a coordinated operating strategy could allow the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to help meet water demands in Egypt during periods of water scarcity and increase hydropower generation and storage in Ethiopia during high flows. Here we show the hydrological and macroeconomic performance of this coordinated strategy compared to a strategy that resembles a recent draft proposal for the operation of the dam discussed in Washington DC. Integrating river system and economy-wide models in a dynamic, iterative, bidirectional fashion allows assessing some economic impacts of interventions in river systems. Here the authors use this framework to compare water resources management strategies for the Nile in a quest for efficient use of the river’s limited and stressed water resources.
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影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Brown, Casey;Lall, Upmanu
通讯作者：
Lall, Upmanu
国家水，食品和贸易建模框架：埃及案。
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.197
发表时间：
2018-10-15
期刊：
The Science of the total environment
影响因子：
--
作者：
Abdelkader A;Elshorbagy A;Tuninetti M;Laio F;Ridolfi L;Fahmy H;Hoekstra AY
通讯作者：
Hoekstra AY
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Elagib, Nadir Ahmed;Basheer, Mohammed
通讯作者：
Basheer, Mohammed
DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.01.005
发表时间：
2014-03-01
影响因子：
8.9
作者：
Byers, Edward A.;Hall, Jim W.;Amezaga, Jaime M.
通讯作者：
Amezaga, Jaime M.
影响因子：
9
作者：
Acaravci, Ali;Ozturk, Ilhan
通讯作者：
Ozturk, Ilhan