Close-kin mark-recapture methods to estimate demographic parameters of mosquitoes.
Close-kin mark-recapture methods to estimate demographic parameters of mosquitoes.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010755
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发表时间：
2022-12
影响因子：
4.3
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中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
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近亲标记重捕获（CKMR）方法最近被用来推断人口统计参数，例如人口普查种群规模以及对渔业和保护感兴趣的鱼类的存活率。这些方法比传统的标记重新捕获方法具有优势，因为标记是遗传的，消除了可能干扰参数估计的物理标记和重新捕获的需要。对于蚊子来说，近亲对的空间分布已被用来估计平均扩散距离，这与媒介传播疾病传播和新型生物防治策略相关。在这里，我们将 CKMR 方法扩展到蚊子和类似昆虫的生活史。我们推导出母子、父子、全兄弟姐妹和同父异母兄弟姐妹对的亲缘概率，其中每对中的一个个体可能是幼虫、蛹或成虫。使用伪似然方法来组合所有亲属关系对的边际概率。为了测试这种方法在估计蚊子人口统计参数方面的有效性，我们开发了一种基于个体的蚊子生活史模型，包括卵、幼虫、蛹和成虫生命阶段。该模拟为每个个体贴上唯一的识别码标签，从而能够推断出样本个体的近亲关系。以登革热媒介埃及伊蚊作为案例研究，我们发现 CKMR 方法为逻辑上可行的抽样方案提供了对成虫普查种群规模、成虫和幼虫死亡率以及幼虫生命阶段持续时间的公正估计。考虑到 3,000 只成年蚊子的模拟种群，当大约 1000 只成年蚊子时，成虫参数的估计是准确的。在三个月的时间内，每两周对 40 名成年女性进行采样。当成虫取样补充约时，幼虫参数的估计是准确的。同一时期每两周对 120 只幼虫进行取样。这些方法还可以有效地检测干预引起的成人死亡率增加和人口规模减少。随着基因组测序成本的下降，CKMR 在描述蚊子和具有流行病学和农业意义的类似昆虫的种群特征方面具有巨大的前景。近亲标记重新捕获 (CKMR) 方法是传统标记重新捕获方法的遗传类似物，其中样本中标记个体的频率用于推断人口统计参数，例如人口普查人口规模和平均分散距离。在CKMR中，标记是个体之间的近亲关系（父母与后代、兄弟姐妹等）。虽然迄今为止 CKMR 方法主要应用于水生物种，但也有机会将其应用于昆虫和其他陆地物种。在这里，我们以登革热、基孔肯雅热和黄热病的主要传播媒介埃及伊蚊为案例研究，探讨了 CKMR 在蚊子上的应用。通过分析模拟 Ae。对于埃及伊蚊种群，我们发现 CKMR 方法提供了对成虫普查种群规模、成虫和幼虫死亡率以及幼虫生命阶段持续时间的公正估计，并且可能为干预影响提供信息。最佳采样方案与 Ae 兼容。埃及伊蚊生态学和实地研究。这项研究代表了 CKMR 在昆虫物种中应用的首次理论探索，并展示了其在描述具有流行病学和农业重要性的昆虫人口学特征方面的潜力。
Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) methods have recently been used to infer demographic parameters such as census population size and survival for fish of interest to fisheries and conservation. These methods have advantages over traditional mark-recapture methods as the mark is genetic, removing the need for physical marking and recapturing that may interfere with parameter estimation. For mosquitoes, the spatial distribution of close-kin pairs has been used to estimate mean dispersal distance, of relevance to vector-borne disease transmission and novel biocontrol strategies. Here, we extend CKMR methods to the life history of mosquitoes and comparable insects. We derive kinship probabilities for mother-offspring, father-offspring, full-sibling and half-sibling pairs, where an individual in each pair may be a larva, pupa or adult. A pseudo-likelihood approach is used to combine the marginal probabilities of all kinship pairs. To test the effectiveness of this approach at estimating mosquito demographic parameters, we develop an individual-based model of mosquito life history incorporating egg, larva, pupa and adult life stages. The simulation labels each individual with a unique identification number, enabling close-kin relationships to be inferred for sampled individuals. Using the dengue vector Aedes aegypti as a case study, we find the CKMR approach provides unbiased estimates of adult census population size, adult and larval mortality rates, and larval life stage duration for logistically feasible sampling schemes. Considering a simulated population of 3,000 adult mosquitoes, estimation of adult parameters is accurate when ca. 40 adult females are sampled biweekly over a three month period. Estimation of larval parameters is accurate when adult sampling is supplemented with ca. 120 larvae sampled biweekly over the same period. The methods are also effective at detecting intervention-induced increases in adult mortality and decreases in population size. As the cost of genome sequencing declines, CKMR holds great promise for characterizing the demography of mosquitoes and comparable insects of epidemiological and agricultural significance. Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) methods are a genetic analogue of traditional mark-recapture methods in which the frequency of marked individuals in a sample is used to infer demographic parameters such as census population size and mean dispersal distance. In CKMR, the mark is a close-kin relationship between individuals (parents and offspring, siblings, etc.). While CKMR methods have mostly been applied to aquatic species to date, opportunities exist to apply them to insects and other terrestrial species. Here, we explore the application of CKMR to mosquitoes, with Aedes aegypti, a primary vector of dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever, as a case study. By analyzing simulated Ae. aegypti populations, we find the CKMR approach provides unbiased estimates of adult census population size, adult and larval mortality rates, and larval life stage duration, and may be informative of intervention impact. Optimal sampling schemes are compatible with Ae. aegypti ecology and field studies. This study represents the first theoretical exploration of the application of CKMR to an insect species, and demonstrates its potential for characterizing the demography of insects of epidemiological and agricultural importance.
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影响因子：
3
作者：
Hancock, Penny A.;Godfray, H. Charles J.
通讯作者：
Godfray, H. Charles J.
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Carvalho DO;McKemey AR;Garziera L;Lacroix R;Donnelly CA;Alphey L;Malavasi A;Capurro ML
通讯作者：
Capurro ML
影响因子：
6.6
作者：
Sanchez, Hector M. C.;Wu, Sean L.;Marshall, John M.
通讯作者：
Marshall, John M.
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
FOCKS, DA;HAILE, DG;MOUNT, GA
通讯作者：
MOUNT, GA
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Guerra CA;Reiner RC Jr;Perkins TA;Lindsay SW;Midega JT;Brady OJ;Barker CM;Reisen WK;Harrington LC;Takken W;Kitron U;Lloyd AL;Hay SI;Scott TW;Smith DL
通讯作者：
Smith DL