Application of the lumped age-class technique to studying the dynamics of malaria-mosquito-human interactions.
Application of the lumped age-class technique to studying the dynamics of malaria-mosquito-human interactions.
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DOI：
10.1186/1475-2875-6-98
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发表时间：
2007-07-30
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Godfray, H. Charles J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hancock, Penny A.;Godfray, H. Charles J.
利用Gurney & Nisbet的集中年龄分类技术，开发了一系列疟疾-蚊子-人类相互作用的模型。这些模型明确地包括了亚成虫蚊子的动态，并假设种群调节发生在幼虫期。在连续时间内对蚊子动力学进行建模的一个挑战是，昆虫具有离散的生活史阶段（卵、幼虫、蛹和成虫），持续时间相对固定的亚成虫阶段，它们受到非常不同的人口统计学比率的影响。集中年龄-阶层技术提供了一种自然的方法来处理这种类型的人口结构。由此产生的模型，被描述为一个延迟微分方程系统，分析起来只比传统的常微分方程稍微困难一点，比可选的偏微分方程方法容易得多。集中年龄分级技术还允许对蚊子摄入疟原虫和疟原虫变得具有传染性之间相对固定的时间延迟进行自然处理。为了说明这种方法的应用，我们开发了三个模型：一个只包括蚊子的动力学，第二个包括疟原虫但不包括人类动力学，第三个包括疟疾病原体和人类种群的相互作用（尽管只是以简单的经典罗斯-麦克唐纳方式）。推导了疟疾研究中使用的一系列流行病学数量，如媒介能力、昆虫学接种率和基本繁殖数（R0），并给出了模型动力学分析和模拟的实例。讨论了假设和扩展。这表明，该建模框架可能是探索疟疾媒介流行病学中各种问题的自然和有用的工具，特别是在需要动态表示蚊子招募的情况下。
A series of models of malaria-mosquito-human interactions using the Lumped Age-Class technique of Gurney & Nisbet are developed. The models explicitly include sub-adult mosquito dynamics and assume that population regulation occurs at the larval stage. A challenge for modelling mosquito dynamics in continuous time is that the insect has discrete life-history stages (egg, larva, pupa & adult), the sub-adult stages of relatively fixed duration, which are subject to very different demographic rates. The Lumped Age-Class technique provides a natural way to treat this type of population structure. The resulting model, phrased as a system of delay-differential equations, is only slightly harder to analyse than traditional ordinary differential equations and much easier than the alternative partial differential equation approach. The Lumped Age-Class technique also allows the natural treatment of the relatively fixed time delay between the mosquito ingesting Plasmodium and it becoming infective. Three models are developed to illustrate the application of this approach: one including just the mosquito dynamics, the second including Plasmodium but no human dynamics, and the third including the interaction of the malaria pathogen and the human population (though only in a simple classical Ross-Macdonald manner). A range of epidemiological quantities used in studying malaria such as the vectorial capacity, the entomological inoculation rate and the basic reproductive number (R0) are derived, and examples given of the analysis and simulation of model dynamics. Assumptions and extensions are discussed. It is suggested that this modelling framework may be a natural and useful tool for exploring a variety of issues in malaria-vector epidemiology, especially in circumstances where a dynamic representation of mosquito recruitment is required.
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影响因子：
3
作者：
Depinay, JMO;Mbogo, CM;McKenzie, FE
通讯作者：
McKenzie, FE
影响因子：
5.7
作者：
CLEMENTS, AN;PATERSON, GD
通讯作者：
PATERSON, GD
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
GODFRAY, HCJ;HASSELL, MP
通讯作者：
HASSELL, MP
DOI：
10.1016/s0035-9203(03)90018-6
发表时间：
2003-01-01
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Gu, WD;Killeen, GF;Beier, JC
通讯作者：
Beier, JC
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0610685104
发表时间：
2007-05-29
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Atkinson, Michael P.;Su, Zheng;Wein, Lawrence M.
通讯作者：
Wein, Lawrence M.