Behavioural science is unlikely to change the world without a heterogeneity revolution.
Behavioural science is unlikely to change the world without a heterogeneity revolution.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41562-021-01143-3
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发表时间：
2021-08
影响因子：
29.9
通讯作者：
Yeager DS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bryan CJ;Tipton E;Yeager DS
在过去十年中，行为科学在决策方面的影响力有所增加，但在其研究结果的可复制性方面遭遇了信任危机。在这里，我们描述了一个新生的异质性革命，我们相信这两个历史趋势已经引发。这场革命将被定义为认识到大多数治疗效果是异质性的，因此，只要在没有系统的抽样和适度方法的情况下研究异质性效应，就可以预期在定义复制危机的研究中效果估计的变化。当系统地研究时，异质性可以用来建立更完整的因果机制理论，为政策制定者提供细致入微和可靠的指导。我们建议投资于共享的研究基础设施，使其可行的研究行为干预的异质性和可推广的样本，并建议低成本的步骤，研究人员可以立即采取，以避免被误导的异质性和开始，而不是从中学习。
In the past decade, behavioural science has gained influence in policymaking but suffered a crisis of confidence in the replicability of its findings. Here, we describe a nascent heterogeneity revolution that we believe these twin historical trends have triggered. This revolution will be defined by the recognition that most treatment effects are heterogeneous, so the variation in effect estimates across studies that defines the replication crisis is to be expected as long as heterogeneous effects are studied without a systematic approach to sampling and moderation. When studied systematically, heterogeneity can be leveraged to build more complete theories of causal mechanism that could inform nuanced and dependable guidance to policymakers. We recommend investment in shared research infrastructure to make it feasible to study behavioural interventions in heterogeneous and generalizable samples, and suggest low-cost steps researchers can take immediately to avoid being misled by heterogeneity and begin to learn from it instead.
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