The threshold effects of meteorological factors on Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in China, 2011.
The threshold effects of meteorological factors on Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in China, 2011.
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2011年中国手足口病气象因素阈值效应
DOI：
10.1038/srep36351
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发表时间：
2016-11-16
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Hao Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Du Z;Zhang W;Zhang D;Yu S;Hao Y
我们探讨了气象因素对中国大陆手足口病（HFMD）的阈值效应，以提高预防和预警水平。利用2011年手足口病监测和气象数据，我们确定了预测因子对手足口病月发病率的阈值效应，并利用分类和回归树模型（CART）预测了高风险月份。分类树结果显示，非秋季季节气温大于24.03℃、相对湿度小于60.9%时，手足口病高风险概率为82.35%。根据高危预测热图显示，5月至8月，大部分省份手足口病发病均超出正常水平。回归树结果显示，当温度大于24.85℃、相对湿度在80.59%~82.55%之间时，手足口病相对于月平均发病率的相对风险（RR）为3.49。本研究为我国气象因素对手足口病的阈值效应提供了定量证据。温度高于24.85℃、相对湿度在80.59%至82.55%之间的条件下，感染手足口病的风险较高。
We explored the threshold effects of meteorological factors on hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in mainland China to improve the prevention and early warning. Using HFMD surveillance and meteorological data in 2011, we identified the threshold effects of predictors on the monthly incidence of HFMD and predicted the high risk months, with classification and regression tree models (CART). The results of the classification tree showed that there was an 82.35% chance for a high risk of HFMD when the temperature was greater than 24.03 °C and the relative humidity was less than 60.9% during non-autumn seasons. According to the heatmap of high risk prediction, the HFMD incidence in most provinces was beyond the normal level during May to August. The results of regression tree showed that when the temperature was greater than 24.85 °C and the relative humidity was between 80.59% and 82.55%, the relative risk (RR) of HFMD was 3.49 relative to monthly average incidence. This study provided quantitative evidence for the threshold effects of meteorological factors on HFMD in China. The conditions of a temperature greater than 24.85 °C and a relative humidity between 80.59% and 82.55% would lead to a higher risk of HFMD.
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影响因子：
3.7
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通讯作者：
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