Spatial-temporal clusters and risk factors of hand, foot, and mouth disease at the district level in Guangdong Province, China.
Spatial-temporal clusters and risk factors of hand, foot, and mouth disease at the district level in Guangdong Province, China.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0056943
复制
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Hao Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Deng T;Huang Y;Yu S;Gu J;Huang C;Xiao G;Hao Y
手足口病（HFMD）对儿童健康构成巨大威胁，已成为我国公共卫生重点。本研究旨在调查中国广东省手足口病的流行病学特征、时空格局及危险因素，为公共卫生应对和干预提供科学信息。 2008年5月至2011年12月手足口病监测数据由中国疾病预防控制中心提供。我们首先进行描述性分析来评估手足口病的流行特征。然后，使用基于离散泊松模型的库尔多夫扫描统计量来检测时空聚类。最后，应用空间面板模型来识别风险因素。研究期间，广东省共报告手足口病病例641,318例（人口总发病率：每万人17.51例）。各年龄段男性发病率均高于女性，约90%为儿童。时空聚类分析发现 2008 年至 2011 年期间，四个最有可能的聚类和几个次要聚类（P<0.001），最大聚类大小分别为 50% 和 20%。月平均气温、相对湿度、人口年份比例、男女比例、总日照时间等被证明是手足口病的危险因素。几岁的儿童，尤其是男孩，更容易感染手足口病，我们应该照顾他们的脆弱性。省会城市广州和珠三角地区历来是时空聚集区，未来的公共卫生规划和资源配置应重点关注这些地区。此外，我们的研究结果表明手足口病与气象因素之间存在很强的相关性，这可能有助于预测手足口病的发病率。
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has posed a great threat to the health of children and become a public health priority in China. This study aims to investigate the epidemiological characteristics, spatial-temporal patterns, and risk factors of HFMD in Guangdong Province, China, and to provide scientific information for public health responses and interventions. HFMD surveillance data from May 2008 to December 2011were provided by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We firstly conducted a descriptive analysis to evaluate the epidemic characteristics of HFMD. Then, Kulldorff scan statistic based on a discrete Poisson model was used to detect spatial-temporal clusters. Finally, a spatial paneled model was applied to identify the risk factors. A total of 641,318 HFMD cases were reported in Guangdong Province during the study period (total population incidence: 17.51 per 10,000). Male incidence was higher than female incidence for all age groups, and approximately 90% of the cases were children years old. Spatial-temporal cluster analysis detected four most likely clusters and several secondary clusters (P<0.001) with the maximum cluster size 50% and 20% respectively during 2008–2011. Monthly average temperature, relative humidity, the proportion of population years, male-to-female ratio, and total sunshine were demonstrated to be the risk factors for HFMD. Children years old, especially boys, were more susceptible to HFMD and we should take care of their vulnerability. Provincial capital city Guangzhou and the Pearl River Delta regions had always been the spatial-temporal clusters and future public health planning and resource allocation should be focused on these areas. Furthermore, our findings showed a strong association between HFMD and meteorological factors, which may assist in predicting HFMD incidence.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
0.8
作者：
Kulldorff, M
通讯作者：
Kulldorff, M
影响因子：
12.7
作者：
Kulldorff, M;Athas, WF;Key, CR
通讯作者：
Key, CR
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Elhorst, JP
通讯作者：
Elhorst, JP
2010年，中国南昌的手，脚和口腔疾病的爆发表征。
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Liu MY;Liu W;Luo J;Liu Y;Zhu Y;Berman H;Wu J
通讯作者：
Wu J
影响因子：
8.8
作者：
Blomqvist, Soile;Klemola, Paivi;Roivainen, Merja
通讯作者：
Roivainen, Merja