Climate warming amplifies the frequency of fish mass mortality events across north temperate lakes

Climate warming amplifies the frequency of fish mass mortality events across north temperate lakes
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气候变暖加剧了北温带湖泊鱼类大规模死亡事件的频率

DOI:
10.1002/lol2.10274
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发表时间:
2022
影响因子:
7.8
通讯作者:
Fey, Samuel B.
Fey, Samuel B.
中科院分区:
环境科学与生态学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Tye, Simon P.;Siepielski, Adam M.;Bray, Andrew;Rypel, Andrew L.;Phelps, Nicholas B.;Fey, Samuel B.

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最近动物大规模死亡事件的增加与全球气候的重大变化同时发生。然而,预测气候变化将如何加剧这些生态灾难发生的易于处理的方法仍然处于萌芽阶段。我们编制了最全面的数据集之一,包括静养鱼类死亡事件、受影响家庭的热耐受性以及北美 8891 个北温带湖泊的 120 万条空气和水温剖面图。湖泊内部和湖泊之间的极端温度与三种最常见的原因类型(传染源、夏季死亡、冬季死亡)密切相关。热耐受性介导了直接热应激的致命性,但温水鱼和冷水鱼的死亡发生在相似的温度偏差下。基于水温和气温的模型准确预测了当代夏季死亡事件,并表明到 2100 年,其发生频率将分别增加约 6 至 34 倍。这些模型预测并说明了在日益动荡的世界中即将发生的生态系统变化。
Recent increases of animal mass mortality events have coincided with substantial changes in global climate. Yet, tractable approaches that predict how climate change will accentuate occurrences of these ecological catastrophes remain nascent. We compiled one of the most comprehensive datasets of lentic fish mortality events, thermal tolerances of affected families, and 1.2 million air and water temperature profiles across 8891 north temperate lakes in North America. Temperature extremes within and across lakes were strongly associated with the three most frequent cause types (infectious agents, summerkills, winterkills). Thermal tolerances mediated the lethality of direct thermal stress, but mortalities of warm‐ and cold‐water fishes occurred at similar temperature deviations. Water and air temperature‐based models accurately predicted contemporary summerkills and suggested ~ 6‐ to 34‐fold increases, respectively, in their frequency by 2100. These models forecast and contextualize impending ecosystem changes in an increasingly volatile world.
鱼类死亡事件的回顾性和预测性调查。
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发表时间: 2019
影响因子: 1.2
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发表时间: 2021-04-19
影响因子: 16.6
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