Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability.
Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x
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发表时间：
2017-07-19
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Scheffer M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lenton TM;Dakos V;Bathiany S;Scheffer M
气候变率对自然和社会至关重要，特别是如果它的幅度增加和/或波动变得更加持久。然而，气候变率是否正在变化，如果是，这是否是由于人为强迫的问题，是正在进行的辩论的主题。在北太平洋等一些区域，已发现温度波动幅度和持续性增加，但没有商定的全球信号。在这里，我们系统地扫描每月的表面温度指数和空间数据集，以寻找方差和自相关（持久性）的趋势。我们发现，在1957-2002年期间，北太平洋，北大西洋，北美和地中海的大部分地区的月温度变率和自相关性增加。此外，（多）十年的内部气候变率似乎影响每月温度变率和自相关的趋势。历史强迫气候模式不能再现观测到的温度变化和自相关趋势，这与模式捕捉（多）年代际内部气候变率的能力差相一致。基于对已建立的空间相关性和相应的机械“遥相关”的回顾，我们假设，所观察到的海洋表面温度变率的减缓有助于观察到的陆地温度变率和自相关性的增加，这反过来又导致了北美和地中海的持续干旱。
Climate variability is critically important for nature and society, especially if it increases in amplitude and/or fluctuations become more persistent. However, the issues of whether climate variability is changing, and if so, whether this is due to anthropogenic forcing, are subjects of ongoing debate. Increases in the amplitude and persistence of temperature fluctuations have been detected in some regions, e.g. the North Pacific, but there is no agreed global signal. Here we systematically scan monthly surface temperature indices and spatial datasets to look for trends in variance and autocorrelation (persistence). We show that monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation increased over 1957–2002 across large parts of the North Pacific, North Atlantic, North America and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, (multi)decadal internal climate variability appears to influence trends in monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation. Historically-forced climate models do not reproduce the observed trends in temperature variance and autocorrelation, consistent with the models poorly capturing (multi)decadal internal climate variability. Based on a review of established spatial correlations and corresponding mechanistic ‘teleconnections’ we hypothesise that observed slowing down of sea surface temperature variability contributed to observed increases in land temperature variability and autocorrelation, which in turn contributed to persistent droughts in North America and the Mediterranean.
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Dakos V;Carpenter SR;Brock WA;Ellison AM;Guttal V;Ives AR;Kéfi S;Livina V;Seekell DA;van Nes EH;Scheffer M
通讯作者：
Scheffer M
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
Hare, SR;Mantua, NJ
通讯作者：
Mantua, NJ
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Bathiany, Sebastian;van der Bolt, Bregje;Notz, Dirk
通讯作者：
Notz, Dirk
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0306738101
发表时间：
2004-03-23
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
McCabe, GJ;Palecki, MA;Betancourt, JL
通讯作者：
Betancourt, JL
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1421533112
发表时间：
2015-03-17
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Kelley, Colin P.;Mohtadi, Shahrzad;Kushnir, Yochanan
通讯作者：
Kushnir, Yochanan