How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology.
How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2108395118
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发表时间：
2021-12-07
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Eggo RM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Waterlow NR;van Leeuwen E;Davies NG;CMMID COVID-19 Working Group;Flasche S;Eggo RM
据推测，对人类冠状病毒季节性流行的交叉保护有助于在大流行的早期阶段相对节省儿童。测试这一点依赖于了解最近HCoV感染的大流行前年龄分布，但对其动态知之甚少。以英格兰和威尔士为例，我们使用传播模型来估计对季节性冠状病毒的免疫持续时间，并显示交叉保护如何影响第一波易感性的年龄分布，并可能在未来十年改变SARS-CoV-2的传播模式。我们假设，对人类冠状病毒（hcov）季节性流行的交叉保护可能影响了严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2 （SARS-CoV-2）的传播，包括降低了儿童的易感性。为了确定对hcov的免疫在大流行前的分布是什么，我们对英格兰和威尔士6年的季节性冠状病毒监测数据进行了数学模型拟合。我们估计对季节性HCoV的免疫持续时间为7.8年（95% CI为6.3至8.1），并表明，尽管HCoV和SARS-CoV-2之间的交叉保护可能有助于年龄分布，但这不足以解释英格兰和威尔士第一波大流行中SARS-CoV-2感染的年龄模式。我们模型的预测表明，循环冠状病毒之间交叉保护的不同强度如何决定未来十年SARS-CoV-2流行的频率和程度，以及交叉保护对未来季节性冠状病毒传播的潜在影响。
Cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) has been hypothesized to contribute to the relative sparing of children during the early phase of the pandemic. Testing this relies on understanding the prepandemic age distribution of recent HCoV infections, but little is known about their dynamics. Using England and Wales as a case study, we use a transmission model to estimate the duration of immunity to seasonal coronaviruses, and show how cross-protection could have affected the age distribution of susceptibility during the first wave, and could alter SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns over the coming decade. We hypothesized that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the prepandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 y of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.8 y (95% CI 6.3 to 8.1) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission.
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DOI：
10.1128/cdli.12.11.1317-1321.2005
发表时间：
2005-11-01
期刊：
CLINICAL AND DIAGNOSTIC LABORATORY IMMUNOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Chan, KH;Cheng, VCC;Peiris, JSM
通讯作者：
Peiris, JSM
DOI：
10.1016/s2666-5247(21)00025-2
发表时间：
2021-06
期刊：
The Lancet. Microbe
影响因子：
--
作者：
Chia WN;Zhu F;Ong SWX;Young BE;Fong SW;Le Bert N;Tan CW;Tiu C;Zhang J;Tan SY;Pada S;Chan YH;Tham CYL;Kunasegaran K;Chen MI;Low JGH;Leo YS;Renia L;Bertoletti A;Ng LFP;Lye DC;Wang LF
通讯作者：
Wang LF
DOI：
10.1016/j.jcv.2021.104847
发表时间：
2021-06
期刊：
Journal of clinical virology : the official publication of the Pan American Society for Clinical Virology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Dugas M;Grote-Westrick T;Merle U;Fontenay M;Kremer AE;Hanses F;Vollenberg R;Lorentzen E;Tiwari-Heckler S;Duchemin J;Ellouze S;Vetter M;Fürst J;Schuster P;Brix T;Denkinger CM;Müller-Tidow C;Schmidt H;Tepasse PR;Kühn J
通讯作者：
Kühn J
DOI：
10.1016/j.jinf.2013.03.015
发表时间：
2013-08
期刊：
The Journal of infection
影响因子：
--
作者：
Chan KH;Chan JF;Tse H;Chen H;Lau CC;Cai JP;Tsang AK;Xiao X;To KK;Lau SK;Woo PC;Zheng BJ;Wang M;Yuen KY
通讯作者：
Yuen KY
影响因子：
82.9
作者：
Edridge, Arthur W. D.;Kaczorowska, Joanna;van der Hoek, Lia
通讯作者：
van der Hoek, Lia