Fecundability and Sterility by Age: Estimates Using Time to Pregnancy Data of Japanese Couples Trying to Conceive Their First Child with and without Fertility Treatment.

Fecundability and Sterility by Age: Estimates Using Time to Pregnancy Data of Japanese Couples Trying to Conceive Their First Child with and without Fertility Treatment.
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DOI:
10.3390/ijerph18105486
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发表时间:
2021-05-20
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
Ohtsuki H
Ohtsuki H
中科院分区:
综合性期刊3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Konishi S;Kariya F;Hamasaki K;Takayasu L;Ohtsuki H

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生育能力,即在一个月或一个月经周期内受孕的概率,在男女各年龄组之间和年龄组内各不相同。生育治疗在包括日本在内的一些国家已变得普遍,但其对生育能力年龄模式的影响尚不清楚。通过利用以前收集的日本夫妇试图怀孕他们的第一个孩子的怀孕时间(TTP)的数据,本研究的目的是估计生育能力和不孕症的妇女的年龄,并评估如何估计可能会有所不同,包括或排除辅助概念。终止避孕和受孕(包括自然和辅助)之间的持续时间导致活产称为TTP-所有,自然受孕结束的持续时间称为TTP-自然。当参与者接受生育咨询或治疗时,对TTP-自然进行删失。使用零膨胀β分布模型估计每个年龄组的不育(零受孕概率)比例和生育力分布。使用最大似然法估计分布参数。当使用TTP-all和TTP-natural时,整个样品的不育比例分别为2%和14%,受精率的中位数(四分位距)分别为0.10(0.04,0.19)和0.11(0.05,0.19)。中位数四分位距为0.18(0.10,0.29)对于24岁或以下的妇女和0.05(0.02,0.13),与基于TTP-natural的估计值非常相似:24岁及以下的妇女为0.18(0.10,0.29),35-39岁的妇女为0.06(0.00,0.15)。排除辅助受孕导致较大比例的不育,但它对生育力估计的中位数或四分位数范围影响不大。生育力是整体较低,在较高的年龄,而四分位数的范围是重叠的,这表明在一个年龄组内的生育力的个体间的变异性是一样大的跨年龄组的变异性。
Fecundability, the probability of conception in a month or in a menstrual cycle, varies across and within age groups for both women and men. Fertility treatment has become common in a number of countries including Japan, but its impact on the age pattern of fecundability is unknown. By utilizing the previously collected data on time to pregnancy (TTP) of Japanese couples trying to conceive their first child, the present study aimed to estimate fecundability and sterility by women’s age and to assess how the estimates may differ by including or excluding assisted conceptions. Duration between discontinuing contraception and conception (including both natural and assisted) resulted in a live birth was called TTP-all, and the duration ending with natural conception was called TTP-natural. TTP-natural was censored when a participant received fertility consultation or treatment. A zero-inflated beta distribution model was used to estimate a proportion of sterile (zero probability of conception) and a distribution of fecundability for each age group. Parameters of the distribution were estimated using the maximum likelihood method. When TTP-all and TTP-natural were used, the sterile proportion of the whole sample was, respectively, 2% and 14%, and the median (interquartile range) of fecundability was, respectively, 0.10 (0.04, 0.19) and 0.11 (0.05, 0.19). The median (interquartile range) of fecundability was 0.18 (0.10, 0.29) for women aged 24 years or younger and 0.05 (0.02, 0.13) for 35–39 years old when TTP-all was used, and the estimates were quite similar with those based on TTP-natural: it was 0.18 (0.10, 0.29) for women aged 24 years or younger and 0.06 (0.00, 0.15) for 35–39 years old. Exclusion of assisted conceptions resulted in larger proportions of sterility, but it had little impact on median or interquartile ranges of fecundability estimates. Fecundability is overall lower at higher ages, while interquartile ranges are overlapping, suggesting that inter-individual variability of fecundability within an age group is as large as the variability across age groups.
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