Detecting spatial-temporal clusters of HFMD from 2007 to 2011 in Shandong Province, China.
Detecting spatial-temporal clusters of HFMD from 2007 to 2011 in Shandong Province, China.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0063447
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Xue F
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu Y;Wang X;Liu Y;Sun D;Ding S;Zhang B;Du Z;Xue F
手足口病（HFMD）已在全球范围内引起重大公共卫生问题，并已成为儿童死亡的主要原因之一。我国是疫情最严重的地区，2008 - 2010年累计报告病例3,419,149例，不同地理区域在不同时空尺度上可能具有不同的空间流行病学特征。对山东省县级手足口病进行了空间和时空流行病学分析。基于国家疾病监测报告管理系统，建立2007 - 2011年手足口病时空数据库。首次使用全球自相关统计量（Moran's I）来检测各年手足口病病例的空间自相关性。PST-SPATIAL SCAND统计量和ST-TIME SCAND统计量相结合的方法检测疫情聚集。山东省年平均发病率为93.70/10万。发病年龄以0-5岁为主（93.94%），男女性别比平均为1.71，发病季节高峰在4 ~ 7月。主要病原体为EV 71（47.35%）和CoxA 16（26.59%）。手足口病在中等空间尺度（县级）水平上具有正的空间自相关性，Moran's I值在0.31 ~ 0.62之间，差异有显著性（P<0.001）。2007 - 2011年，山东省共发现7个时空聚集性疫情，其中EV 71和CoxA 16为主要流行区。2007 - 2011年山东省手足口病时空分布呈聚集性，以EV 71或CoxA 16为优势病原。提示应建立实时时空监测系统，及时发现高发区，及时开展预防工作。
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has caused major public health concerns worldwide, and has become one of the leading causes of children death. China is the most serious epidemic area with a total of 3,419,149 reported cases just from 2008 to 2010, and its different geographic areas might have different spatial epidemiology characteristics at different spatial-temporal scale levels. We conducted spatial and spatial-temporal epidemiology analysis to HFMD at county level in Shandong Province, China. Based on the China National Disease Surveillance Reporting and Management System, the spatial-temporal database of HFMD from 2007 to 2011 was built. The global autocorrelation statistic (Moran’s I) was first used to detect the spatial autocorrelation of HFMD cases in each year. Purely Spatial scan statistics combined with Space-time scan statistic were used to detect epidemic clusters. The annual average incidence rate was 93.70 per 100,000 in Shandong Province. Most HFMD cases (93.94%) were aged within 0–5 years old with an average male-to-female sex ratio 1.71, and the incidence seasonal peak was between April and July. The dominant pathogen was EV71 (47.35%), and CoxA16 (26.59%). HFMD had positive spatial autocorrelation at medium spatial scale level (county level) with higher Moran’s I from 0.31 to 0.62 (P<0.001). Seven spatial-temporal clusters were detected from 2007 to 2011 in the landscape of the whole Shandong, with EV71 or CoxA16 as the dominant pathogen for most hotspots areas. The spatial-temporal clusters of HFMD wandered around the whole Shandong Province during 2007 to 2011, with EV71 or CoxA16 as the dominant pathogen. These findings suggested that a real-time spatial-temporal surveillance system should be established for identifying high incidence region and conducting prevention to HFMD timely.
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DOI：
10.1093/brain/awq300
发表时间：
2010-12
期刊：
Brain : a journal of neurology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Draganski B;Martino D;Cavanna AE;Hutton C;Orth M;Robertson MM;Critchley HD;Frackowiak RS
通讯作者：
Frackowiak RS
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Gerard, E;Peterson, BS
通讯作者：
Peterson, BS
影响因子：
5.7
作者：
Neuner, Irene;Kupriyanova, Yuliya;Shah, N. Jon
通讯作者：
Shah, N. Jon
影响因子：
8.6
作者：
Makki, Malek I.;Behen, Michael;Chugani, Harry T.
通讯作者：
Chugani, Harry T.
影响因子：
17.7
作者：
Marsh, Rachel;Zhu, Hongtu;Peterson, Bradley S.
通讯作者：
Peterson, Bradley S.