Human footprint is associated with shifts in the assemblages of major vector-borne diseases.
Human footprint is associated with shifts in the assemblages of major vector-borne diseases.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41893-023-01080-1
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发表时间：
2023-06
影响因子：
27.6
通讯作者：
Mordecai, Erin A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Skinner, Eloise B.;Glidden, Caroline K.;MacDonald, Andrew J.;Mordecai, Erin A.
预测人与环境相互作用强度的增加如何影响病原体传播，对于预测不断变化的疾病风险和确定适当的缓解战略至关重要。媒介传播疾病（VBD）对环境变化高度敏感，但这种反应是众所周知的难以隔离，因为病原体的传播取决于一套生态和社会反应的载体和宿主，可能不同的物种。在这里，我们使用累积压力映射和机器学习的新兴工具，以更好地了解六种医学上重要的VBD的发生，从森林到城市的生态不同，对人类压力的多维影响作出反应。我们发现，不仅是人类的足迹，人类压力的指数，将建成的环境，能源和交通基础设施，农业用地和人口密度的VBD发生的一个重要的预测，但有明确的阈值管理不同的VBD的发生。在一系列人类压力中，与较低人类压力相关的疾病，包括疟疾、皮肤利什曼病和内脏利什曼病，让位于与高人类压力相关的疾病，如登革热、基孔肯雅病和寨卡病毒。VBDs对人类压力的这些异质性反应突出了土地利用转型的阈值，这可能导致传染病负担和公共卫生需求的突然转变。
Predicting how increasing intensity of human–environment interactions affects pathogen transmission is essential to anticipate changing disease risks and identify appropriate mitigation strategies. Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are highly responsive to environmental changes, but such responses are notoriously difficult to isolate because pathogen transmission depends on a suite of ecological and social responses in vectors and hosts that may differ across species. Here we use the emerging tools of cumulative pressure mapping and machine learning to better understand how the occurrence of six medically important VBDs, differing in ecology from sylvatic to urban, respond to multidimensional effects of human pressure. We find that not only is human footprint—an index of human pressure, incorporating built environments, energy and transportation infrastructure, agricultural lands and human population density—an important predictor of VBD occurrence, but there are clear thresholds governing the occurrence of different VBDs. Across a spectrum of human pressure, diseases associated with lower human pressure, including malaria, cutaneous leishmaniasis and visceral leishmaniasis, give way to diseases associated with high human pressure, such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika. These heterogeneous responses of VBDs to human pressure highlight thresholds of land-use transitions that may lead to abrupt shifts in infectious disease burdens and public health needs.
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影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Kilpatrick, A. Marm;Randolph, Sarah E.
通讯作者：
Randolph, Sarah E.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2023483118
发表时间：
2021-04-27
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Ellis EC;Gauthier N;Klein Goldewijk K;Bliege Bird R;Boivin N;Díaz S;Fuller DQ;Gill JL;Kaplan JO;Kingston N;Locke H;McMichael CNH;Ranco D;Rick TC;Shaw MR;Stephens L;Svenning JC;Watson JEM
通讯作者：
Watson JEM
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Genuer, Robin;Poggi, Jean-Michel;Tuleau-Malot, Christine
通讯作者：
Tuleau-Malot, Christine
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Grobbelaar AA;Weyer J;Moolla N;Jansen van Vuren P;Moises F;Paweska JT
通讯作者：
Paweska JT
影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Elsen, Paul R.;Monahan, William B.;Merenlender, Adina M.
通讯作者：
Merenlender, Adina M.