Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic.
Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic.
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在很大程度上不受限制的流行病中，巴西亚马逊中SARS-COV-2的四分之三攻击率。
DOI：
10.1126/science.abe9728
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发表时间：
2021-01-15
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Sabino EC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Buss LF;Prete CA Jr;Abrahim CMM;Mendrone A Jr;Salomon T;de Almeida-Neto C;França RFO;Belotti MC;Carvalho MPSS;Costa AG;Crispim MAE;Ferreira SC;Fraiji NA;Gurzenda S;Whittaker C;Kamaura LT;Takecian PL;da Silva Peixoto P;Oikawa MK;Nishiya AS;Rocha V;Salles NA;de Souza Santos AA;da Silva MA;Custer B;Parag KV;Barral-Netto M;Kraemer MUG;Pereira RHM;Pybus OG;Busch MP;Castro MC;Dye C;Nascimento VH;Faria NR;Sabino EC
严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)的发病率于2020年5月在巴西马瑙斯达到顶峰，给该市居民造成了毁灭性的损失，导致该市的医疗服务遭到破坏，墓地不堪重负。巴斯等人的研究成果。从马瑙斯和S圣保罗的献血者那里收集数据，记录传播开始下降的时间，并估计2020年10月的最终发病率(见Sridhar和Gurdasani的观点)。免疫保护的异质性、人口结构、贫困、公共交通方式以及非药物干预措施的不均衡采用意味着，尽管发病率很高，但可能没有实现群体免疫。这座不幸的城市已经成为自然人群免疫力如何影响未来传播的哨兵。马瑙斯发生的事件表明，如果听任这种病毒发展下去，可能会发生什么悲剧和对社会的危害。《科学》，本期第288页；另见第288页，新冠肺炎在巴西马瑙斯的传播表明，一种基本上未得到缓解的流行病可以感染高比例的人口，并导致高死亡率。严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)在巴西北部亚马逊州首府马瑙斯迅速传播。侵袭率是对马瑙斯疫情最终规模的估计，疫情基本上没有缓解。我们使用一个方便的献血者样本来表明，到2020年6月，也就是马瑙斯疫情高峰后一个月，44%的人口具有可检测到的免疫球蛋白G(IgG)抗体。校正了没有检测到抗体反应的病例和抗体减弱的病例，我们估计6月份的发病率为66%，10月份上升到76%。这一数字高于巴西东南部的S圣保罗，那里10月份的袭击率估计为29%。这些结果证实，如果控制不当，新冠肺炎可以感染很大比例的人口，导致高死亡率。
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) incidence peaked in Manaus, Brazil, in May 2020 with a devastating toll on the city's inhabitants, leaving its health services shattered and cemeteries overwhelmed. Buss et al. collected data from blood donors from Manaus and São Paulo, noted when transmission began to fall, and estimated the final attack rates in October 2020 (see the Perspective by Sridhar and Gurdasani). Heterogeneities in immune protection, population structure, poverty, modes of public transport, and uneven adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions mean that despite a high attack rate, herd immunity may not have been achieved. This unfortunate city has become a sentinel for how natural population immunity could influence future transmission. Events in Manaus reveal what tragedy and harm to society can unfold if this virus is left to run its course. Science, this issue p. 288; see also p. The spread of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, shows that a largely unmitigated epidemic can infect a high fraction of the population and cause high mortality. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread rapidly in Manaus, the capital of Amazonas state in northern Brazil. The attack rate there is an estimate of the final size of the largely unmitigated epidemic that occurred in Manaus. We use a convenience sample of blood donors to show that by June 2020, 1 month after the epidemic peak in Manaus, 44% of the population had detectable immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies. Correcting for cases without a detectable antibody response and for antibody waning, we estimate a 66% attack rate in June, rising to 76% in October. This is higher than in São Paulo, in southeastern Brazil, where the estimated attack rate in October was 29%. These results confirm that when poorly controlled, COVID-19 can infect a large proportion of the population, causing high mortality.
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影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Britton, Tom;Ball, Frank;Trapman, Pieter
通讯作者：
Trapman, Pieter
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa2034545
发表时间：
2021-02-11
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
Lumley SF;O'Donnell D;Stoesser NE;Matthews PC;Howarth A;Hatch SB;Marsden BD;Cox S;James T;Warren F;Peck LJ;Ritter TG;de Toledo Z;Warren L;Axten D;Cornall RJ;Jones EY;Stuart DI;Screaton G;Ebner D;Hoosdally S;Chand M;Crook DW;O'Donnell AM;Conlon CP;Pouwels KB;Walker AS;Peto TEA;Hopkins S;Walker TM;Jeffery K;Eyre DW;Oxford University Hospitals Staff Testing Group
通讯作者：
Oxford University Hospitals Staff Testing Group
影响因子：
19
作者：
Mizumoto, Kenji;Kagaya, Katsushi;Chowell, Gerardo
通讯作者：
Chowell, Gerardo
影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Pollan, Marina;Perez-Gomez, Beatriz;Yotti, Raquel
通讯作者：
Yotti, Raquel
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Lewis, Fraser I.;Torgerson, Paul R.
通讯作者：
Torgerson, Paul R.