Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.
Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-012-0570-x
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发表时间：
2012-01-10
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Giorgi, Filippo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Diffenbaugh, Noah S.;Giorgi, Filippo
我们使用多维气候变化的统计指标来量化 CMIP5 气候模型集合中全球气候变化热点的出现。我们的热点指标通过纳入极端季节性温度和降水来扩展之前的工作，这对气候变化的影响发挥着关键作用。结果表明，亚马逊、萨赫勒和热带西非、印度尼西亚和青藏高原地区是整个 21 世纪 RCP8.5 和 RCP4.5 强迫路径的持续区域气候变化热点。此外，南部非洲、地中海、北极和中美洲/北美西部地区也因中度和高度强迫而成为突出的区域气候变化热点。两种强迫路径不同时期的比较表明，总体变化模式对于全球变暖水平低于大约 2°C（相对于 20 世纪末基线）的全球变暖水平相当稳健，但在 RCP8.5 路径的 21 世纪末期发生的较高全球变暖水平上则不然，南部非洲、地中海和北极地区表现出特殊的变化 因高强度强迫而导致的相对总体气候变化的加剧。虽然具体影响显然是由气候变化与人类和生物脆弱性的相互作用决定的，但我们对气候变化热点的识别可以通过量化世界不同地区总体气候响应的速度、幅度和原因，帮助为缓解和适应决策提供信息。本文的在线版本 (doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0570-x) 包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2 °C of global warming (relative to the late-20th-century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21st-century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world. The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0570-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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影响因子：
56.9
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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DOI：
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发表时间：
2009-09-15
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
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通讯作者：
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