A framework for assessing threats and benefits to species responding to climate change
A framework for assessing threats and benefits to species responding to climate change
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评估物种应对气候变化的威胁和益处的框架
DOI：
10.1111/j.2041-210x.2010.00065.x
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Thomas C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Thomas C
1.目前评估物种威胁的国家和国际框架并没有在气候变化的背景下发展起来，也没有认识到气候变化带来的新机遇。这里提出的框架将气候变化对单个物种的威胁和好处分开。威胁是根据观测到的（如重复普查）和/或预测的变化（如模拟的生物气候空间），通过物种最近占据的（如1970年代以前）历史分布中与气候相关的下降水平来评估的。效益是根据观察到的和/或预计的超出最近占用的历史范围的增长来评估的。在该框架内考虑到可能增加威胁程度或限制扩张以应对气候变化的加剧因素（如人口规模小、扩散能力低）。协议还用于确定每个物种评估的信任水平（从而确定研究和/或监测需要）。观察到的和预计的变化与相关的信心措施一起合并为预期下降和增加的单一措施。我们根据最确定的信息对风险分类进行加权。然后将每个物种置于六个类别中的一个（高风险，中等风险，有限影响，同等风险和效益，中等效益，高效益）中，反映基于利益和威胁的平衡，预计（或已观察到）气候变化是否会导致所考虑区域的净减少或净增加。我们通过将该框架应用于(i)所有英国蝴蝶（N= 58种）和（ii）额外的英国物种样本：18种植物、蝙蝠、鸟类和甲虫来说明使用该框架的可行性。我们的框架评估了单个物种与气候变化相关的净减少和净增加。它可以适用于任何规模（物种的区域、大陆或全球分布），并补充现有的保护评估协议，如红色名录。利用观测和预测的种群和/或范围数据，对正在应对气候变化的物种进行系统的保护状况评估，为制定监测、适应措施和保护管理规划提供信息是可行的。
1.Current national and international frameworks for assessing threats to species have not been developed in the context of climate change, and are not framed in a way that recognises new opportunities that arise from climate change.2.The framework presented here separates the threats and benefits of climate change for individual species. Threat is assessed by the level of climate‐related decline within a species’ recently occupied (e.g. pre‐1970s) historical distribution, based on observed (e.g. repeat census) and/or projected changes (e.g. modelled bioclimate space). Benefits are assessed in terms of observed and/or projected increases outside the recently occupied historical range.3.Exacerbating factors (e.g. small population size, low dispersal capacity) that might increase levels of threat or limit expansion in response to climate change are taken into consideration within the framework. Protocols are also used to identify levels of confidence (and hence research and/or monitoring needs) in each species’ assessment.4.Observed and projected changes are combined into single measures of expected decline and increase, together with associated measures of confidence. We weight risk classifications towards information that is most certain. Each species is then placed in one of six categories (high risk, medium risk, limited impact, equivalent risks & benefits, medium benefit, high benefit) reflecting whether climate change is expected (or has been observed) to cause net declines or increases in the region considered, based on the balance of benefits and threats.5.We illustrate the feasibility of using the framework by applying it to (i) all British butterflies (N= 58 species) and (ii) an additional sample of British species: 18 species of plants, bats, birds and beetles.6.Synthesis. Our framework assesses net declines and increases associated with climate change, for individual species. It could be applied at any scale (regional, continental or global distributions of species), and complements existing conservation assessment protocols such as red‐listing. Using observed and projected population and/or range data, it is feasible to carry out systematic conservation status assessments that inform the development of monitoring, adaptation measures and conservation management planning for species that are responding to climate change.
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模拟栖息地破碎化对蝴蝶活动范围扩张的影响
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2009
期刊：
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
影响因子：
--
作者：
R. Wilson;Z. Davies;C. Thomas
通讯作者：
C. Thomas
预测鸟类物种分布对土地覆盖变化的响应的危险。
DOI：
10.1890/08-0348.1
发表时间：
2009
期刊：
Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America
影响因子：
--
作者：
S. Vallecillo;L. Brotóns;W. Thuiller
通讯作者：
W. Thuiller
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
J. Pearce‐Higgins;M. Grant;M. Robinson;Susan L. Haysom
通讯作者：
Susan L. Haysom
影响因子：
8.8
作者：
Oliver, Tom;Roy, David B.;Thomas, Chris D.
通讯作者：
Thomas, Chris D.
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
HUNTLEY, B
通讯作者：
HUNTLEY, B