Chapter 9: The MGH-HMS lung cancer policy model: tobacco control versus screening.
Chapter 9: The MGH-HMS lung cancer policy model: tobacco control versus screening.
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01652.x
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发表时间：
2012-07
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Gazelle GS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McMahon PM;Kong CY;Johnson BE;Weinstein MC;Weeks JC;Tramontano AC;Cipriano LE;Bouzan C;Gazelle GS
MGH肺癌政策模型（LCPM）的自然史模型不包括其他CISNET肺模型中采用的两阶段克隆扩增模型。我们使用LCPM来预测1975年至2000年期间美国30-84岁年龄段肺癌死亡人数，作为本专题论文中描述的比较建模分析的一部分。LCPM是肺癌发展、进展、检测、治疗和生存的综合微观模拟模型。个体水平的患者病史被汇总以估计队列或人群水平的结果。肺癌状态是根据潜在的疾病变量，测试结果和临床事件定义的。通过模拟详细的临床程序，LCPM可以预测各种患者管理实践（包括年度筛查计划）的益处和危害。在观察到的吸烟模式的情况下，预测的死亡人数从校准的LCPM的2%内观察到的所有年份（1975-2000年）。LCPM估计，历史烟草控制政策实现了28.6%（男性25.2%，女性30.5%）的潜在减少美国肺癌死亡的吸烟已经完全消除。假设在1975年对所有年龄在55-74岁之间、至少有30包-年香烟暴露于历史烟草控制的人进行年度螺旋CT筛查，则实现的比例为39.0%（男性42.0%，女性33.3%）。采用年度筛查可以预防的肺癌死亡人数不到消除吸烟的一半。
The natural history model underlying the MGH Lung Cancer Policy Model (LCPM) does not include the two-stage clonal expansion model employed in other CISNET lung models. We used the LCPM to predict numbers of U.S. lung cancer deaths for ages 30–84 between 1975 and 2000 under 4 scenarios as part of the comparative modeling analysis described in this monograph. The LCPM is a comprehensive microsimulation model of lung cancer development, progression, detection, treatment, and survival. Individual-level patient histories are aggregated to estimate cohort or population-level outcomes. Lung cancer states are defined according to underlying disease variables, test results, and clinical events. By simulating detailed clinical procedures, the LCPM can predict benefits and harms attributable to a variety of patient management practices, including annual screening programs. Under the scenario of observed smoking patterns, predicted numbers of deaths from the calibrated LCPM were within 2% of observed over all years (1975–2000). The LCPM estimated that historical tobacco control policies achieved 28.6% (25.2% in men, 30.5% in women) of the potential reduction in U.S. lung cancer deaths had smoking had been eliminated entirely. The hypothetical adoption in 1975 of annual helical CT screening of all persons aged 55–74 with at least 30 pack-years of cigarette exposure to historical tobacco control would have yielded a proportion realized of 39.0% (42.0% in men, 33.3% in women). The adoption of annual screening would have prevented less than half as many lung cancer deaths as the elimination of cigarette smoking.
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1524-4733.2008.00484.x
发表时间：
2009-06
期刊：
Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kong CY;McMahon PM;Gazelle GS
通讯作者：
Gazelle GS
DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01827.x
发表时间：
2012-07
期刊：
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
影响因子：
--
作者：
Boer R;Moolgavkar SH;Levy DT
通讯作者：
Levy DT
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Meza, Rafael;Hazelton, William D.;Moolgavkar, Suresh H.
通讯作者：
Moolgavkar, Suresh H.
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Rosenberg, Marjorie A.;Feuer, Eric J.;Burns, David M.
通讯作者：
Burns, David M.
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Holford, Theodore R.;Clarke, Lauren D.
通讯作者：
Clarke, Lauren D.