Time to evolve? Potential evolutionary responses of fraser river sockeye salmon to climate change and effects on persistence.
Time to evolve? Potential evolutionary responses of fraser river sockeye salmon to climate change and effects on persistence.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0020380
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Hinch SG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Reed TE;Schindler DE;Hague MJ;Patterson DA;Meir E;Waples RS;Hinch SG
进化适应影响人口对气候变化的适应能力，但很少有研究试图预测选择压力的变化或量化性状反应对种群动态和灭绝风险的影响。我们使用了一个新的基于个体的模型来探索在未来气候变暖的情况下，加拿大弗雷泽河红鲑迁移时间的潜在进化变化及其种群持久性的后果。成年红鲑鱼在艰难的上游迁徙过程中对水温的升高非常敏感，这引起了人们对这些在生态、文化和商业上都很重要的鱼类在未来变暖中的命运的担忧。我们的研究结果表明，上游迁移时间的进化可以使这些鲑鱼避免日益频繁的压力温度，种群持续存在的几率与性状遗传力和表型变异成比例。在2100年夏季河流平均温度升高2°C的模拟条件下，当遗传率为0.5时，成虫从海洋到河流的迁徙时间提前了~ 10天，而准灭绝风险仅为零进化潜力（即遗传率固定为零）种群所面临的风险的17%。尽管还需要进一步的实证工作来评估物候适应的潜在遗传和生态生理限制，但根据鲑鱼和相关物种的时间性状的估计遗传率和微进化率，在模拟的中至快速变暖情景下维持持久性所需的进化速度是合理的。这些结果强调了鲑鱼管理的好处，除了保护主要栖息地和尽可能减少额外的压力外，保持种群内的进化潜力，作为一种建立对持续气候变化的适应能力的手段。更一般地说，它们表明在预测人口对环境变化的反应时，除生态学和人口学外，还考虑到进化过程的重要性和可行性。
Evolutionary adaptation affects demographic resilience to climate change but few studies have attempted to project changes in selective pressures or quantify impacts of trait responses on population dynamics and extinction risk. We used a novel individual-based model to explore potential evolutionary changes in migration timing and the consequences for population persistence in sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the Fraser River, Canada, under scenarios of future climate warming. Adult sockeye salmon are highly sensitive to increases in water temperature during their arduous upriver migration, raising concerns about the fate of these ecologically, culturally, and commercially important fish in a warmer future. Our results suggest that evolution of upriver migration timing could allow these salmon to avoid increasingly frequent stressful temperatures, with the odds of population persistence increasing in proportion to the trait heritability and phenotypic variance. With a simulated 2°C increase in average summer river temperatures by 2100, adult migration timing from the ocean to the river advanced by ∼10 days when the heritability was 0.5, while the risk of quasi-extinction was only 17% of that faced by populations with zero evolutionary potential (i.e., heritability fixed at zero). The rates of evolution required to maintain persistence under simulated scenarios of moderate to rapid warming are plausible based on estimated heritabilities and rates of microevolution of timing traits in salmon and related species, although further empirical work is required to assess potential genetic and ecophysiological constraints on phenological adaptation. These results highlight the benefits to salmon management of maintaining evolutionary potential within populations, in addition to conserving key habitats and minimizing additional stressors where possible, as a means to build resilience to ongoing climate change. More generally, they demonstrate the importance and feasibility of considering evolutionary processes, in addition to ecology and demography, when projecting population responses to environmental change.
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影响因子：
4.1
作者：
Fraser DJ
通讯作者：
Fraser DJ
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
Carlson SM;Seamons TR
通讯作者：
Seamons TR
影响因子：
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作者：
Hard JJ;Gross MR;Heino M;Hilborn R;Kope RG;Law R;Reynolds JD
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Reynolds JD
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作者：
Gienapp, P.;Teplitsky, C.;Merila, J.
通讯作者：
Merila, J.
影响因子：
2.8
作者：
Berkeley, SA;Hixon, MA;Love, MS
通讯作者：
Love, MS