Storm Surge, Blocking, and Cyclones: A Compound Hazards Analysis for the Northeast United States
Storm Surge, Blocking, and Cyclones: A Compound Hazards Analysis for the Northeast United States
复制标题
风暴潮、阻塞和旋风：美国东北部的复合灾害分析
DOI：
10.1175/jamc-d-21-0062.1
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Booth, James F.;Narinesingh, Veeshan;Towey, Katherine L.;Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth
风暴潮是一种天气灾害，可以产生危险的洪水，在时间和大气强迫方面还没有完全了解。通过对美国东北部的观测，根据持续时间和强度对浪涌进行分类，以揭示不同的时间演变行为。持续时间较长的浪涌事件会缓慢消退，而持续时间较短的强浪涌事件往往在最大值之后快速连续出现负浪涌。利用拉格朗日轨迹信息，确定了产生浪涌事件的热带和温带气旋和大气块。风暴潮持续时间与风暴潮最大值呈线性相关，且由温带气旋引起的风暴潮与由热带气旋引起的风暴潮之间的相关性更强。对于基于持续时间的极端事件，持续时间最短的强风暴潮事件是由热带气旋引起的，而持续时间最长的事件通常是由温带气旋引起的。至少有一半的长时间风暴潮事件与气旋极地异常强烈的大气阻塞有关，而短时间的强风暴潮事件通常是由气旋在没有阻塞的情况下引起的。气流块的动力影响导致缓慢移动的气旋沿着蜿蜒的路径移动。相比之下，对于持续时间较短的强气旋，其移动速度更快，路径更偏向经向。这些独特的动态情景为解释中期预报中激增的威胁提供了更好的见解。
Storm surge is a weather hazard that can generate dangerous flooding and is not fully understood in terms of timing and atmospheric forcing. Using observations along the northeastern United States, surge is sorted on the basis of duration and intensity to reveal distinct time-evolving behavior. Long-duration surge events slowly recede, whereas strong, short-duration events often involve negative surge in quick succession after the maximum. Using Lagrangian track information, the tropical and extratropical cyclones and atmospheric blocks that generate the surge events are identified. There is a linear correlation between surge duration and surge maximum, and the relationship is stronger for surge caused by extratropical cyclones as compared with those events caused by tropical cyclones. For the extremes based on duration, the shortest-duration strong surge events are caused by tropical cyclones, whereas the longest-duration events are most often caused by extratropical cyclones. At least one-half of long-duration surge events involve anomalously strong atmospheric blocking poleward of the cyclone, whereas strong, short-duration events are most often caused by cyclones in the absence of blocking. The dynamical influence of the blocks leads to slow-moving cyclones that take meandering paths. In contrast, for strong, short-duration events, cyclones travel faster and take a more meridional path. These unique dynamical scenarios provide better insight for interpreting the threat of surge in medium-range forecasts.
登录
查看更多内容
基于回归的纽约-新泽西海岸冷季风暴潮预测方法
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
K. J. Roberts;B. Colle;N. Georgas;S. Munch
通讯作者：
S. Munch
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
P. Gurumurthy;P. Orton;S. Talke;N. Georgas;J. Booth
通讯作者：
J. Booth
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Sina Lenggenhager;O. Martius
通讯作者：
Sina Lenggenhager;O. Martius
影响因子：
8
作者：
Catto, Jennifer L.;Dowdy, Andrew
通讯作者：
Dowdy, Andrew
充分利用风暴潮预报：北卡罗来纳州的紧急支持人员需求
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
Weather, Climate, and Society
影响因子：
--
作者：
R. Munroe;B. Montz;S. Curtis
通讯作者：
S. Curtis