Quantifying Global Drivers of Zoonotic Bat Viruses: A Process-Based Perspective.
Quantifying Global Drivers of Zoonotic Bat Viruses: A Process-Based Perspective.
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DOI：
10.1086/684391
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发表时间：
2016-02
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
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新出现的传染病，特别是人畜共患病，对全球健康构成重大威胁。涌现往往是由人为活动(例如，旅行、土地利用变化)驱动的。尽管疾病出现框架建议从最初的人畜共患病传播到人与人之间的传播有多个步骤，但很少有人尝试对具体步骤进行经验性建模。我们创建了一个基于流程的框架，以分离出各个应急步骤的组件。我们专注于早期的出现，并将第一步人畜传播扩展到病原体丰富度的产生、传播机会和建立的过程中，每个过程都有自己的假设驱动因素。利用这种结构，我们以与人类共享的蝙蝠病毒为例，构建了这些驱动因素的空间经验模型。我们表明，病毒丰富性(宿主多样性和气候变异性)和传播机会(人口密度、丛林肉狩猎和畜牧业生产)的驱动因素都与人类和蝙蝠之间的病毒共享有关。我们还显示了这两个过程的全球模式之间的空间异质性，这表明野生动物病原体发现和监测的高优先级地点可能不一定与公共卫生干预的地点一致。最后，我们强调了人畜共患EID出现的过程的重要性，从而为未来的人畜共患病研究提供了方向。
Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), particularly zoonoses, represent a significant threat to global health. Emergence is often driven by anthropogenic activity (e.g., travel, land use change). Although disease emergence frameworks suggest multiple steps from initial zoonotic transmission to human-to-human spread, there have been few attempts to empirically model specific steps. We create a process-based framework to separate out components of individual emergence steps. We focus on early emergence and expand the first step, zoonotic transmission, into processes of generation of pathogen richness, transmission opportunity, and establishment, each with its own hypothesized drivers. Using this structure, we build a spatial empirical model of these drivers, taking bat viruses shared with humans as a case study. We show that drivers of both viral richness (host diversity and climatic variability) and transmission opportunity (human population density, bushmeat hunting, and livestock production) are associated with virus sharing between humans and bats. We also show spatial heterogeneity between the global patterns of these two processes, suggesting that high-priority locations for pathogen discovery and surveillance in wildlife may not necessarily coincide with those for public health intervention. Finally, we offer direction for future studies of zoonotic EIDs by highlighting the importance of the processes underlying their emergence.
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影响因子：
8.8
作者：
Cooper, Natalie;Griffin, Randi;Nunn, Charles L.
通讯作者：
Nunn, Charles L.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1006219107
发表时间：
2010-12-14
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Chan, Emily H.;Brewer, Timothy F.;Brownstein, John S.
通讯作者：
Brownstein, John S.
DOI：
10.1098/rstb.1986.0072
发表时间：
1986-12-15
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
ANDERSON, RM;MAY, RM
通讯作者：
MAY, RM
影响因子：
14.9
作者：
The UniProt Consortium
通讯作者：
The UniProt Consortium
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Guan, Y;Zheng, BJ;Poon, LLM
通讯作者：
Poon, LLM