Climate change impacts on human health over Europe through its effect on air quality.
Climate change impacts on human health over Europe through its effect on air quality.
复制标题
气候变化通过对空气质量的影响对欧洲人类健康的影响。
DOI：
10.1186/s12940-017-0325-2
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发表时间：
2017-12-05
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
O'Connor FM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Doherty RM;Heal MR;O'Connor FM
本文综述了关于未来排放和气候变化对颗粒物(PM)和臭氧空气质量的影响以及由此产生的健康影响的现有文献，重点是欧洲。关于气候变化对臭氧的影响有相当多的文献，但关于气候变化对PM浓度的影响的研究较少。根据最新的政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第五次评估报告(AR5)代表浓度路径(RCP)，由于气候变暖，水蒸气浓度较高，预计在大多数情况下进入欧洲的本底臭氧将减少。然而，在极端途径RCP8.5下，甲烷(CH4)丰度较高(超过两倍)导致背景臭氧的增加，抵消了气候变化导致的臭氧下降，特别是在2100年期间。就区域而言，在氮氧化物(NOx)水平较高的污染地区，地表温度和湿度的升高会增加地表臭氧--被称为臭氧气候惩罚--尤其是在南欧。对于表示臭氧分布的较高端的指标，例如日最大臭氧，臭氧响应较大。由于气候变化，PM浓度未来的变化不太确定，尽管最近的几项研究也表明，由于2100年中纬度北部陆地地区的高温和湿度以及降水减少，PM气候将受到惩罚。更多的研究考察了RCP情景下未来气候和排放的变化。在这些路径下，到本世纪50年代，排放变化对空气质量的影响将比气候变化造成的影响更大，这是因为臭氧和PM污染物前体排放的大幅减少，以及气候变化反应本身的更有限。气候变化还将影响热浪等气候极端事件。空气污染事件与停滞事件有关，有时还与热浪有关。2003年欧洲热浪期间的空气质量已经通过大量研究进行了检查，并确定了提高臭氧的机制。关于仅与气候变化对空气质量的影响有关的健康影响的研究很少，但这些研究表明，污染人口地区与臭氧相关的健康负担更高，这些排放地区的PM2.5健康负担更大。审查气候变化和人为排放变化在RCP情景下的综合影响的研究报告称，由于前体排放的大幅减少，全球和欧洲与臭氧呼吸相关的过早死亡和PM死亡率有所减少。根据RCP 8.5，CH4的大幅增加导致了全球和欧洲在2100年与臭氧呼吸相关的过量死亡。对于未来的健康影响，除了未来臭氧浓度，特别是PM浓度的不确定性外，风险估计也存在不确定性，例如温度对污染物-反应关系的影响修改，以及可能改变暴露风险的未来适应。本文的在线版本(10.1186/s12940-0170325-2)包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
This review examines the current literature on the effects of future emissions and climate change on particulate matter (PM) and O3 air quality and on the consequent health impacts, with a focus on Europe. There is considerable literature on the effects of climate change on O3 but fewer studies on the effects of climate change on PM concentrations. Under the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th assessment report (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), background O3 entering Europe is expected to decrease under most scenarios due to higher water vapour concentrations in a warmer climate. However, under the extreme pathway RCP8.5 higher (more than double) methane (CH4) abundances lead to increases in background O3 that offset the O3 decrease due to climate change especially for the 2100 period. Regionally, in polluted areas with high levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx), elevated surface temperatures and humidities yield increases in surface O3 – termed the O3 climate penalty – especially in southern Europe. The O3 response is larger for metrics that represent the higher end of the O3 distribution, such as daily maximum O3. Future changes in PM concentrations due to climate change are much less certain, although several recent studies also suggest a PM climate penalty due to high temperatures and humidity and reduced precipitation in northern mid-latitude land regions in 2100. A larger number of studies have examined both future climate and emissions changes under the RCP scenarios. Under these pathways the impact of emission changes on air quality out to the 2050s will be larger than that due to climate change, because of large reductions in emissions of O3 and PM pollutant precursor emissions and the more limited climate change response itself. Climate change will also affect climate extreme events such as heatwaves. Air pollution episodes are associated with stagnation events and sometimes heat waves. Air quality during the 2003 heatwave over Europe has been examined in numerous studies and mechanisms for enhancing O3 have been identified. There are few studies on health effects associated with climate change impacts alone on air quality, but these report higher O3-related health burdens in polluted populated regions and greater PM2.5 health burdens in these emission regions. Studies that examine the combined impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions change under the RCP scenarios report reductions in global and European premature O3-respiratory related and PM mortalities arising from the large decreases in precursor emissions. Under RCP 8.5 the large increase in CH4 leads to global and European excess O3-respiratory related mortalities in 2100. For future health effects, besides uncertainty in future O3 and particularly PM concentrations, there is also uncertainty in risk estimates such as effect modification by temperature on pollutant-response relationships and potential future adaptation that would alter exposure risk. The online version of this article (10.1186/s12940-017-0325-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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