Climate change effects on indicators of high and low river flow across Great Britain
Climate change effects on indicators of high and low river flow across Great Britain
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气候变化对英国河流高流量和低流量指标的影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.advwatres.2021.103909
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Kay A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kay A
河流流量的变化，特别是极高和极低的流量，可能是气候变化对人类和环境造成危害的一个特别重要的影响。在这里，应用了一个基于网格的国家级水文模型，结合英国气候预测2018年的全球和区域气候预测，以一致的方式调查整个英国（测量和未测量位置）洪水和干旱的潜在未来变化。使用水文模型输出的气候预测集合，聚类技术被应用到突出的“典型”的变化集的个别指标的洪水或干旱，但也看看同时发生的变化对洪水和干旱指标。全国各地区的结果一般表明，到世纪末，低流量减少，高流量增加。不同区域的结果有很大差异，南部/东部的区域往往显示低流量的下降幅度更大，高流量预测的不确定性范围更大。基于网格的聚类分析也显示了区域内潜在的重要变化，可能与集水特性有关。衍生的气候灾害未来可能发生的变化，如洪水和干旱的频率或严重程度，是适应规划所需的一项关键信息，而考虑一系列相关灾害/风险可能同时发生的变化，而不是孤立地看待每一种灾害/风险，对于避免适应不良可能至关重要。
Changes in river flows, especially extreme high and low flows, could be a particularly important impact of climate change in terms of the hazard to people and the environment. Here, a national-scale grid-based hydrological model is applied, with ensembles of global and regional climate projections from UK Climate Projections 2018, to investigate the potential future changes in both floods and droughts in a consistent way across the whole of Great Britain (gauged and ungauged locations). Using hydrological model outputs for the climate projection ensembles, a clustering technique is applied to highlight ‘typical’ sets of changes in individual indicators of floods or droughts, but also to look at concurrent changes in pairs of flood and drought indicators. The results for regions across the country generally indicate decreases in low flows combined with increases in high flows up to the end of the 21st century. There is significant variation in results for different regions, with those to the south/east tending to show greater decreases in low flows and a greater range of uncertainty in the projections for high flows. A grid-based cluster analysis also shows potentially important variation within regions, likely related to catchment properties. The potential future changes in derived climate hazards, such as the frequency or severity of floods and droughts, is a key piece of information required for adaptation planning, and the consideration of potential concurrent changes in a range of related hazards/risks, rather than viewing each in isolation, could be vital to avoid maladaptation.
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影响因子：
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