Spatio-temporal variation in tuberculosis incidence and risk factors for the disease in a region of unbalanced socio-economic development.
Spatio-temporal variation in tuberculosis incidence and risk factors for the disease in a region of unbalanced socio-economic development.
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社会经济发展不平衡地区结核病发病时空变化及危险因素
DOI：
10.1186/s12889-021-11833-2
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发表时间：
2021-10-09
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Yan M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang L;Xu C;Hu M;Qiao J;Chen W;Li T;Qian S;Yan M
背景以往的研究指出，老年人结核病（TB）的发病率与社会经济状况密切相关，但缺乏对社会经济发展不平衡地区的研究。方法收集2009 - 2014年北京、天津、河北3个人口老龄化和社会经济发展不均衡地区各区县结核病登记病例数据，结合社会经济因素，分析人口老龄化和社会经济发展不均衡地区结核病发病率的时空变化特征。使用贝叶斯时空层次模型（BSTHM）来揭示2009年至2014年该地区老年人结核病发病率的时空变化。GeoDetector被应用到测量的决定性权力（qstatistic）的危险因素，结核病在老年人之间的发病率表现出地理空间异质性，与不发达的农村地区的发病率高于城市地区。老年人结核病发病风险的热点地区主要分布在研究区域的东北部和南部地区，远离大城市。低风险区主要分布在京津都市圈。社会经济因素对老年结核病发病率的影响呈非线性关系，农村居民的主要影响因素是收入（q= 0.20）和医疗条件（q= 0.17）。这些因素有一个非线性的交互作用对结核病的发病率在老年人中，医疗条件和经济发展水平具有最强的效果（q= 0.54）。结论的研究结果解释了时空变化的结核病发病率和老年人结核病的风险决定因素在社会经济发展的差异的存在。高风险地区主要位于远离大都市中心的农村地区。医疗条件和经济发展水平与老年结核病发病率显著相关，且这些因素对老年结核病发病率有非线性交互作用。研究结果有助于优化卫生资源配置，控制该地区老年人口结核病传播。
BackgroundPrevious research pointed to a close relationship between the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in aging populations and socio-economic conditions, however there has been lack of studies focused on a region of unbalanced socio-economic development. The aim of this paper is to explore the spatio-temporal variation in TB incidence and examine risk determinants of the disease among aging populations in a typical region.MethodsData on TB-registered cases between 2009 and 2014, in addition to social-economic factors, were collected for each district/county in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, a region characterized by an aging population and disparities in social-economic development. A Bayesian space–time hierarchy model (BSTHM) was used to reveal spatio-temporal variation in the incidence of TB among the elderly in this region between 2009 to 2014. GeoDetector was applied to measure the determinant power (qstatistic) of risk factors for TB among the elderly.ResultsThe incidence of TB among the elderly exhibited geographical spatial heterogeneity, with a higher incidence in underdeveloped rural areas compared with that in urban areas. Hotspots of TB incidence risk among the elderly were mostly located in north-eastern and southern areas in the study region, far from metropolitan areas. Areas with low risk were distributed mainly in the Beijing-Tianjin metropolitan areas. Social-economic factors had a non-linear influence on elderly TB incidence, with the dominant factors among rural populations being income (q= 0.20) and medical conditions (q= 0.17). These factors had a non-linear interactive effect on the incidence of TB among the elderly, with medical conditions and the level of economic development having the strongest effect (q= 0.54).ConclusionsThe findings explain spatio-temporal variation in TB incidence and risk determinants of elderly TB in the presence of disparities in social-economic development. High-risk zones were located mainly in rural areas, far from metropolitan centres. Medical conditions and the economic development level were significantly associated with elderly TB incidence, and these factors had a non-linear interactive effect on elderly TB incidence. The findings can help to optimize the allocation of health resources and to control TB transmission in the aging population in this region.
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影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Harling G;Lima Neto AS;Sousa GS;Machado MMT;Castro MC
通讯作者：
Castro MC
结合分子分型和空间模式分析来确定台湾中等发病县的结核病高传播区域。
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Chen YY;Chang JR;Wu CD;Yeh YP;Yang SJ;Hsu CH;Lin MC;Tsai CF;Lin MS;Su IJ;Dou HY
通讯作者：
Dou HY
DOI：
10.5588/ijtld.11.0255
发表时间：
2012-04-01
影响因子：
4
作者：
Liu, Y.;Li, X.;Guo, X.
通讯作者：
Guo, X.
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Li, G.;Haining, R.;Best, N.
通讯作者：
Best, N.
影响因子：
8.4
作者：
Liu, Kui;Peng, Ying;Jiang, Jianmin
通讯作者：
Jiang, Jianmin