Age-period-cohort effects in half a century of motor vehicle theft in the United States.
Age-period-cohort effects in half a century of motor vehicle theft in the United States.
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DOI：
10.1186/s40163-020-00126-5
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Farrell G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dixon A;Farrell G
采用和提炼了奥布莱恩的S约束方法，我们估计了自1960年以来半个多世纪以来美国机动车盗窃犯罪的年龄-时期-队列效应。以公认的青少年犯罪高峰期为给定年龄，我们发现S在20世纪70年代的时期效应减少了盗窃，而时期效应，尤其是队列效应，从20世纪90年代开始减少了犯罪率。我们将这些影响理解为与犯罪机会的普遍水平的变化一致，特别是车辆被盗的容易程度。我们将90后的队列效应解读为由一种随年龄而异的时期效应引发的：改进的车辆安全显著减少了青少年犯罪，在一定程度上，队列经历了整个生命过程中犯罪的减少。这表明，青少年犯罪机会的普遍水平是出生队列中犯罪率和持续犯罪率的重要决定因素。我们概述了对研究和实践的其他影响。
Adopting and refining O’Brien’s S-constraint approach, we estimate age-period-cohort effects for motor vehicle theft offences in the United States for over half a century from 1960. Taking the well-established late-teen peak offending age as given, we find period effects reducing theft in the 1970 s, and period, but particularly cohort effects, reducing crime from the 1990s onwards. We interpret these effects as consistent with variation in the prevailing level of crime opportunities, particularly the ease with which vehicles could be stolen. We interpret the post-1990s cohort effect as triggered by a period effect that operated differentially by age: improved vehicle security reduced juvenile offending dramatically, to the extent that cohorts experienced reduced offending across the life-course. This suggests the prevailing level of crime opportunities in juvenile years is an important determinant of rates of onset and continuance in offending in birth cohorts. We outline additional implications for research and practice.
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影响因子：
1.9
作者：
Farrell, Graham;Tilley, Nick
通讯作者：
Tilley, Nick
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Farrell, Graham;Tseloni, Andromachi;Tilley, Nick
通讯作者：
Tilley, Nick
DOI：
10.1007/s10610-011-9151-1
发表时间：
2011-09-01
影响因子：
1.7
作者：
Baessmann, Joerg
通讯作者：
Baessmann, Joerg
影响因子：
1.2
作者：
Brown, Rick
通讯作者：
Brown, Rick
影响因子：
5
作者：
Fabio, A;Loeber, R;Farrington, DP
通讯作者：
Farrington, DP