Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds.
Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pbio.0050157
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发表时间：
2007-06
期刊：
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Dobson AP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jetz W;Wilcove DS;Dobson AP
在过去的几十年里，土地利用和气候变化导致了大范围的收缩和物种灭绝。预计本世纪全球土地覆盖将发生更戏剧性的变化。我们使用千年生态系统评估方案来评估所有8 750种陆鸟物种因气候和土地利用变化而预计的土地覆盖变化的风险。对于第一次基线评估，我们假设固定的地理范围可能高估了地理范围内的实际损失。即使在环境友好的情况下，到2050年，预计至少有400种物种的活动范围将减少50%(到2100年将超过900种)。尽管高纬度地区的预期气候变化影响很大，但面临风险最大的物种主要是热带特有的窄幅物种，那里预计的范围收缩是由人为土地转换推动的。这些物种中的大多数目前都没有被认为是濒危物种。潜在范围损失的原因、规模和地理模式因社会经济情景而异，但所有情景(即使是最环保的情景)都会导致许多物种的大幅下降。虽然气候变化将严重影响生物多样性，但在不久的将来，热带国家土地利用的变化可能会导致更大的物种损失。为了最大限度地减少全球物种灭绝，需要在热带地区大幅扩大储备网络，再加上更雄心勃勃的减少气候变化的目标。土地转换和气候变化已经对生物多样性和相关的生态系统服务产生了重大影响。使用最近完成的千年生态系统评估的未来土地覆盖预测，我们发现，到2100年，世界上8,750种陆鸟中有950-1,800种可能受到气候变化和土地转换的威胁。这些预测是基于这样的假设，即鸟类不会因为气候变化而大幅改变它们的活动范围，这一过程将减少我们预测的活动范围收缩。虽然气候变化将是高纬度地区范围收缩的主要驱动因素，但我们的预测显示，土地转换(例如森林砍伐、草原退耕等)将导致气候变化。将对生活在热带的物种产生更大的影响。这是因为热带地区的鸟类特别多样化，范围往往很小，特别容易灭绝；相比之下，高纬度地区的鸟类多样性较少，范围往往较大。为了最大限度地减少全球物种灭绝，需要在热带地区大规模扩大保护区网络，再加上减少温室气体排放和监测生物多样性影响的更雄心勃勃的目标。使用千禧年生态系统评估方案评估陆鸟物种范围大小的变化表明，土地转换以及气候变化将导致许多物种的减少，特别是热带地区的物种。
Over the past few decades, land-use and climate change have led to substantial range contractions and species extinctions. Even more dramatic changes to global land cover are projected for this century. We used the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios to evaluate the exposure of all 8,750 land bird species to projected land-cover changes due to climate and land-use change. For this first baseline assessment, we assumed stationary geographic ranges that may overestimate actual losses in geographic range. Even under environmentally benign scenarios, at least 400 species are projected to suffer >50% range reductions by the year 2050 (over 900 by the year 2100). Although expected climate change effects at high latitudes are significant, species most at risk are predominantly narrow-ranged and endemic to the tropics, where projected range contractions are driven by anthropogenic land conversions. Most of these species are currently not recognized as imperiled. The causes, magnitude and geographic patterns of potential range loss vary across socioeconomic scenarios, but all scenarios (even the most environmentally benign ones) result in large declines of many species. Whereas climate change will severely affect biodiversity, in the near future, land-use change in tropical countries may lead to yet greater species loss. A vastly expanded reserve network in the tropics, coupled with more ambitious goals to reduce climate change, will be needed to minimize global extinctions. Land conversion and climate change have already had significant impacts on biodiversity and associated ecosystem services. Using future land-cover projections from the recently completed Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, we found that 950–1,800 of the world's 8,750 species of land birds could be imperiled by climate change and land conversion by the year 2100. These projections are based on the assumption that birds will not dramatically shift their ranges in response to a changing climate, a process that would lessen the range contractions we predict. While climate change will be the principal driver of range contractions at higher latitudes, our projections reveal that land conversion (e.g., deforestation, conversion of grasslands to croplands, etc.) will have a much larger effect on species that inhabit the tropics. This is because birds in the tropics are especially diverse and tend to have small ranges, making them particularly vulnerable to extinction; in contrast, birds at higher latitudes are less diverse and tend to have large ranges. A vastly expanded reserve network in the tropics, coupled with more ambitious goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and monitor biodiversity impacts, will be needed to minimize global extinctions. Evaluating changes in range size of land bird species using Millenium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios reveals that land conversion, as well as climate change, will lead to the decline of many species, particularly those in the tropics.
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