The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution
The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution
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根据观察到的分布变化验证了欧洲湿地鸟类繁殖的未来分布
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Knaus, Peter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Soultan, Alaaeldin;Pavón-Jordán, Diego;Bradter, Ute;Sandercock, Brett K;Hochachka, Wesley M;Johnston, Alison;Brommer, Jon;Gaget, Elie;Keller, Verena;Knaus, Peter
由于气候变暖和土地利用变化影响了湿地鸟类的适宜栖息地，全球湿地鸟类的数量一直在下降。我们使用物种分布模型 (SDM) 来预测在欧洲繁殖的 64 种非雀形目湿地鸟类的范围动态变化，包括范围大小、质心位置和边缘。我们将第一个欧洲鸟类繁殖地图集收集的数据以及气候和土地利用数据安装到 SDM 中，以预测一个世纪（1970 年代至 2070 年代）的分布变化。然后，使用第二个欧洲鸟类繁殖地图集的数据，将预测的年度变化与 30 年来观察到的范围大小和范围质心的年度变化进行比较。我们的模型成功预测了大约。 64种鸟类中，75%的鸟类未来繁殖范围将缩小，而其余物种（主要是向南繁殖的物种）预计将向北扩大繁殖范围。南风物种的北缘和北风物种的南缘预计都会向北移动。尽管某些物种明显偏离预测，但预测的范围大小变化和范围质心的变化与观察到的变化广泛呈正相关。核心分布的预测平均偏移约为。 5 km yr− 1 向北移动（5% 东北、45% 向北和 40% 西北），而观察到的平均移动速度较慢约 1 公里。 3.9 km yr−1。范围质心的预测变化通常大于观测到的变化，这表明鸟类分布变化可能滞后于环境变化，导致“气候债务”。我们建议，SDM 的预测应被视为定性结果，而不是定量结果，这表明应注意单一物种。尽管如此，我们的结果凸显了迫切需要采取湿地创建和恢复等管理行动，以提高湿地鸟类对未来预期环境变化的适应能力。
Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr− 1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr− 1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.
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影响因子：
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作者：
Alejandro Ordonez;John W. Williams
通讯作者：
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DOI：
--
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期刊：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
Langham GM;Schuetz JG;Distler T;Soykan CU;Wilsey C
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DOI：
10.5194/gmd-2019-360
发表时间：
2020-04
期刊：
Siam Journal on Scientific and Statistical Computing
影响因子：
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作者：
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G. Hurtt;L. Chini;R. Sahajpal;S. Frolking;B. Bodirsky;K. Calvin;J. Doelman;J. Fisk;S. Fujimori-S.-Fuj