Phase transitions in contagion processes mediated by recurrent mobility patterns.
Phase transitions in contagion processes mediated by recurrent mobility patterns.
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DOI：
10.1038/nphys1944
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发表时间：
2011-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
19.6
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
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人类的流动性和活动模式在许多层面上调节了传染病的传播，包括：传染病的空间传播、谣言的传播和共识的出现。然而，这些模式往往由特定的位置和循环流动所主导，并且通常被用于研究它们的随机扩散动力学所模拟得很差。在这里，我们开发了一个理论框架来分析个人回忆其地理起源的地点网络中的传染。我们发现，在传染病影响系统的很大一部分和只有一小部分受到影响的区域之间存在相变。由于传染过程的随机特征，连续模型无法揭示这种转变，并定义了取决于移动参数的入侵阈值，为通过限制移动过程来控制传染病传播提供了指导。我们通过分析真实人类通勤数据中的扩散过程来恢复阈值行为。
Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including: spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations and recurrent flows and poorly modeled by the random diffusive dynamics generally used to study them. Here we develop a theoretical framework to analyze contagion within a network of locations where individuals recall their geographic origins. We find a phase transition between a regime in which the contagion affects a large fraction of the system and one in which only a small fraction is affected. This transition cannot be uncovered by continuous models due to the stochastic features of the contagion process and defines an invasion threshold that depends on mobility parameters, providing guidance for controlling contagion spread by constraining mobility processes. We recover the threshold behavior by analyzing diffusion processes mediated by real human commuting data.
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DOI：
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发表时间：
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影响因子：
11.1
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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DOI：
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发表时间：
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影响因子：
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