Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach.
Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach.
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DOI：
10.1186/1478-4491-11-41
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发表时间：
2013-08-27
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Ogasawara K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ishikawa T;Ohba H;Yokooka Y;Nakamura K;Ogasawara K
在日本，在医疗保健服务中发挥关键作用的医生短缺已被指出是一个主要的医疗问题。医疗保健人力政策规划者应该考虑医生数量的未来动态变化。本研究的目的是通过应用系统动力学模型来估计未来医生的绝对数量和相对数量，提出一种医生供应预测方法。我们使用系统动力学方法构建了一个预测模型。对所有临床医师和妇产科专科医师的数量进行预测。此外，我们还对医生人数进行了充分性评价和敏感性分析。因此，据预测，在2008-2030年期间，医生的数量将会增加，而所有临床医生的短缺将在2026年得到解决。但是，短缺问题在本报告所述期间不会得到解决。因此，有必要重新考虑新入职医生的分配制度，以解决医疗部门之间的分配不均问题，并增加临床医生的总数。
In Japan, a shortage of physicians, who serve a key role in healthcare provision, has been pointed out as a major medical issue. The healthcare workforce policy planner should consider future dynamic changes in physician numbers. The purpose of this study was to propose a physician supply forecasting methodology by applying system dynamics modeling to estimate future absolute and relative numbers of physicians. We constructed a forecasting model using a system dynamics approach. Forecasting the number of physician was performed for all clinical physician and OB/GYN specialists. Moreover, we conducted evaluation of sufficiency for the number of physicians and sensitivity analysis. As a result, it was forecast that the number of physicians would increase during 2008–2030 and the shortage would resolve at 2026 for all clinical physicians. However, the shortage would not resolve for the period covered. This suggests a need for measures for reconsidering the allocation system of new entry physicians to resolve maldistribution between medical departments, in addition, for increasing the overall number of clinical physicians.
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