Evidence for influenza and RSV interaction from 10 years of enhanced surveillance in Nha Trang, Vietnam, a modelling study.
Evidence for influenza and RSV interaction from 10 years of enhanced surveillance in Nha Trang, Vietnam, a modelling study.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010234
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发表时间：
2022-06
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
流感病毒和呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）在其宿主内相互作用，引起接种后对异源病毒影响的担忧。我们的目的是估计他们的相互作用的人口水平的影响。我们开发了一个动态的年龄分层的两个病原体的数学模型，包括病原体相互作用，通过竞争感染和增强的双重感染的严重程度。我们使用平行回火来拟合其参数，以加强越南芽庄5岁以下儿童急性呼吸道疾病（ARI）的医院监测11年。数据支持感染后和此后10.0天（95%CrI 7.1-12.8）敏感性降低41%（95%CrI：36-54），或感染后敏感性无变化。我们估计，合并感染使<2岁儿童报告感染的概率增加7.2倍（95%CrI 5.0-11.4）;或在中度或低度相互作用情况下增加16.6倍（95%CrI 14.5-18.4）。任何一种病原体的缺失都不会损害另一种病原体。我们发现更有力的证据，严重性增强比收购限制的相互作用。在这种情况下，针对任何一种病原体的疫苗接种都不太可能对另一种病原体引起的疾病负担产生重大不利影响。流感和呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）造成巨大的疾病负担。它们之间可能存在短期的交叉保护，而不是独立行动。迄今为止，这方面的证据来自无法测试机制的生态研究，或无法确定这种交叉保护对种群水平影响的生物研究。我们创建了一个数学模型来模拟这两种病毒的传播，并允许它们之间的交叉保护。然后，我们将此模型与越南芽庄医院报告的确诊感染病例进行拟合，以估计在这种情况下是否存在任何交叉保护。我们发现，有两种可能性，要么没有相互作用或适度的相互作用，可以导致所观察到的循环模式。然而，我们进一步表明，合并感染导致报告率增加，可能是由于严重程度增加。
Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) interact within their host posing the concern for impacts on heterologous viruses following vaccination. We aimed to estimate the population level impact of their interaction. We developed a dynamic age-stratified two-pathogen mathematical model that includes pathogen interaction through competition for infection and enhanced severity of dual infections. We used parallel tempering to fit its parameters to 11 years of enhanced hospital-based surveillance for acute respiratory illnesses (ARI) in children under 5 years old in Nha Trang, Vietnam. The data supported either a 41% (95%CrI: 36–54) reduction in susceptibility following infection and for 10.0 days (95%CrI 7.1–12.8) thereafter, or no change in susceptibility following infection. We estimate that co-infection increased the probability for an infection in <2y old children to be reported 7.2 fold (95%CrI 5.0–11.4); or 16.6 fold (95%CrI 14.5–18.4) in the moderate or low interaction scenarios. Absence of either pathogen was not to the detriment of the other. We find stronger evidence for severity enhancing than for acquisition limiting interaction. In this setting vaccination against either pathogen is unlikely to have a major detrimental effect on the burden of disease caused by the other. Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) cause large burdens of disease. Instead of acting independently, there may be short term cross-protection between them. The evidence of this to date comes from ecological studies which are unable to test the mechanism, or biological studies that are unable to determine the population level impacts of such cross-protection. We create a mathematical model that simulates the circulation of these two viruses, and allows for cross-protection between them. We then fit this model to hospital reported cases of confirmed infection from Nha Trang, Vietnam in order to estimate whether any cross-protection exists in this setting. We show that there are two possibilities—either no interaction or moderate interaction that can result in the observed circulation patterns. However, we further show that co-infection results in an increased reporting rate, presumably due to increased severity.
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影响因子：
5.1
作者：
HALL, CB;DOUGLAS, RG;GEIMAN, JM
通讯作者：
GEIMAN, JM
影响因子：
2
作者：
Cauchemez, S;Carrat, F;Boëlle, PY
通讯作者：
Boëlle, PY
影响因子：
7.3
作者：
Ascough S;Paterson S;Chiu C
通讯作者：
Chiu C
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Hirsh S;Hindiyeh M;Kolet L;Regev L;Sherbany H;Yaary K;Mendelson E;Mandelboim M
通讯作者：
Mandelboim M
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Valkenburg SA;Rutigliano JA;Ellebedy AH;Doherty PC;Thomas PG;Kedzierska K
通讯作者：
Kedzierska K