Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components Predict the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Mainland Chinese: A 3-Year Cohort Study
Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components Predict the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Mainland Chinese: A 3-Year Cohort Study
复制标题
代谢综合征及其组成部分预测中国大陆 2 型糖尿病的风险：一项为期 3 年的队列研究
DOI：
10.1155/2018/9376179
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发表时间：
2018-12
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Cheng-Yun Liu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kun Wang;Qun-Fang Yang;Xing-Lin Chen;Yu-Wei Liu;Sheng-Shuai Shan;Hua-Bo Zheng;Xiao-Fang Zhao;Chang-Zhong Chen;Cheng-Yun Liu
在某些人群中，代谢综合征（MetS）可以预测2型糖尿病（T2DM）的发生风险。然而，关于met对中国大陆人群发生T2DM的预测作用的证据有限。方法对9735名基线时无糖尿病的中国人进行为期3年的队列研究。采用Cox回归多变量分析评估MetS及其组成成分。建立了预测模型。用受试者工作特征曲线下面积评价鉴别能力，用标定曲线评价鉴别能力。结果3年累计T2DM发病率为11.29%。经年龄调整后，基线MetS与T2DM风险增加相关（男性HR = 2.68, 95% CI, 2.27-3.17；女性HR = 2.59, 95% CI, 1.83-3.65）。基线MetS在预测3年T2DM风险方面表现出相对较高的特异性（男性88%，女性94%）和较高的阴性预测值（男性90%，女性94%），但敏感性较低（男性36%，女性23%）和较低的阳性预测值（男性和女性31%）。预测模型的auc，包括年龄和MetS的组成，男性为0.779 (95% CI: 0.759-0.799)，女性为0.860 （95% CI: 0.836-0.883）。校正曲线显示预测结果与观测结果吻合较好；然而，当女性的预测概率为40%时，该模型可能高估了风险。结论：MetS可预测T2DM的风险。基于met的定量T2DM风险预测模型可以改善T2DM的预防策略，并为中国大陆人民带来可观的公共卫生效益。
Introduction It has well established that metabolic syndrome (MetS) can predict the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in some population groups. However, limited evidence is available regarding the predictive effect of MetS for incident T2DM in mainland Chinese population. Methods A 3-year cohort study was performed for 9735 Chinese without diabetes at baseline. MetS and its components were assessed by multivariable analysis using Cox regression. Prediction models were developed. Discrimination was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs), and performance was assessed by a calibration curve. Results The 3-year cumulative incidence of T2DM was 11.29%. Baseline MetS was associated with an increased risk of T2DM after adjusting for age (HR = 2.68, 95% CI, 2.27–3.17 in males; HR = 2.59, 95% CI, 1.83–3.65 in females). Baseline MetS exhibited relatively high specificity (88% in males, 94% in females) and high negative predictive value (90% in males, 94% in females) but low sensitivity (36% in males, 23% in females) and low positive predictive value (31% in males and females) for predicting the 3-year risk of T2DM. AUCs, including age and components of MetS, for the prediction model were 0.779 (95% CI: 0.759–0.799) in males and 0.860 (95% CI: 0.836–0.883) in females. Calibration curves revealed good agreement between prediction and observation results in males; however, the model could overestimate the risk when the predicted probability is >40% in females. Conclusions MetS predicts the risk of T2DM. The quantitative MetS-based prediction model for T2DM risk may improve preventive strategies for T2DM and present considerable public health benefits for the people in mainland China.
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影响因子：
1.9
作者：
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Hajat, Cother;Shather, Zainab
通讯作者：
Shather, Zainab
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Morrison, John A.;Friedman, Lisa Aronson;Glueck, Charles J.
通讯作者：
Glueck, Charles J.
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Yan Li;Dong Zhao;Wei Wang;Jing Liu;Jun Cheng;Qun Liu;Jun Liu;Yan-na Jia;Jia-yi Sun;L. Qin;Zhao-su Wu
影响因子：
37.8
作者：
Wilson, PWF;D'Agostino, RB;Meigs, JB
通讯作者：
Meigs, JB