Challenges in the control of COVID-19 outbreaks caused by the delta variant during periods of low humidity: an observational study in Sydney, Australia.
Challenges in the control of COVID-19 outbreaks caused by the delta variant during periods of low humidity: an observational study in Sydney, Australia.
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低湿度期间控制由 Delta 变种引起的 COVID-19 爆发的挑战：澳大利亚悉尼的一项观察性研究。
DOI：
10.1186/s40249-021-00926-0
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发表时间：
2021-12-23
影响因子：
8.1
通讯作者：
Zhang Z
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ward MP;Liu Y;Xiao S;Zhang Z
自严重急性呼吸道冠状病毒2型（SARS-CoV-2）和2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行出现以来，越来越多的证据表明天气因素，特别是温度和湿度，会影响传播。对于最近出现的SARS-CoV-2的B.1.617.2（delta）变体，这种关系可能有所不同。在这里，我们使用来自澳大利亚悉尼爆发的数据和时间序列分析来调查报告病例与温度和相对湿度之间的关联。在2021年6月16日至9月10日疫情高峰期间，澳大利亚悉尼的五个当地卫生区报告了31，662例当地获得的病例。使用单变量和多变量广义加性模型和14天指数移动平均值评估每日上午9：00和下午3：00温度（°C）、相对湿度（%）及其差异与每日报告病例的时间序列之间的关联。采用赤池信息准则（AIC）和似然比统计量对不同模型进行比较，确定最佳拟合模型。通过修改指数移动平均值进行敏感性分析。在87天的时间序列中，相对湿度范围很广（< 30-98%），温度温和（约11-17 °C）。最佳拟合（AIC：1，119.64）广义加性模型包括上午9：00温度（P < 0.001）和上午9：00相对湿度（P < 0.001）的14天指数移动平均值以及这两个天气变量之间的交互作用（P < 0.001）。无论温度高低，湿度与病例数均呈负相关。较低的相对湿度对病例增加的影响在相对湿度低于约70%时更为明显;低于此阈值时，不仅湿度的影响明显，而且温度与δ变体病例之间的关系也变得明显。我们认为，在一年中相对湿度较低和气温较高的时期，控制COVID-19疫情，特别是三角洲变种疫情，尤其具有挑战性。除了疫苗接种外，在这些高风险时期可能需要考虑更有力地实施其他干预措施，如戴口罩和保持社交距离。在线版本包含补充材料，可通过10.1186/s40249-021-00926-0获得。
Since the appearance of severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, a growing body of evidence has suggested that weather factors, particularly temperature and humidity, influence transmission. This relationship might differ for the recently emerged B.1.617.2 (delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2. Here we use data from an outbreak in Sydney, Australia that commenced in winter and time-series analysis to investigate the association between reported cases and temperature and relative humidity. Between 16 June and 10 September 2021, the peak of the outbreak, there were 31,662 locally-acquired cases reported in five local health districts of Sydney, Australia. The associations between daily 9:00 am and 3:00 pm temperature (°C), relative humidity (%) and their difference, and a time series of reported daily cases were assessed using univariable and multivariable generalized additive models and a 14-day exponential moving average. Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the likelihood ratio statistic were used to compare different models and determine the best fitting model. A sensitivity analysis was performed by modifying the exponential moving average. During the 87-day time-series, relative humidity ranged widely (< 30–98%) and temperatures were mild (approximately 11–17 °C). The best-fitting (AIC: 1,119.64) generalized additive model included 14-day exponential moving averages of 9:00 am temperature (P < 0.001) and 9:00 am relative humidity (P < 0.001), and the interaction between these two weather variables (P < 0.001). Humidity was negatively associated with cases no matter whether temperature was high or low. The effect of lower relative humidity on increased cases was more pronounced below relative humidity of about 70%; below this threshold, not only were the effects of humidity pronounced but also the relationship between temperature and cases of the delta variant becomes apparent. We suggest that the control of COVID-19 outbreaks, specifically those due to the delta variant, is particularly challenging during periods of the year with lower relative humidity and warmer temperatures. In addition to vaccination, stronger implementation of other interventions such as mask-wearing and social distancing might need to be considered during these higher risk periods. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-021-00926-0.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100252
发表时间：
2022-01
期刊：
The Lancet regional health. Europe
影响因子：
--
作者：
Allen H;Vusirikala A;Flannagan J;Twohig KA;Zaidi A;Chudasama D;Lamagni T;Groves N;Turner C;Rawlinson C;Lopez-Bernal J;Harris R;Charlett A;Dabrera G;Kall M;COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK Consortium)
通讯作者：
COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK Consortium)
影响因子：
8.5
作者：
He Z;Chin Y;Yu S;Huang J;Zhang CJP;Zhu K;Azarakhsh N;Sheng J;He Y;Jayavanth P;Liu Q;Akinwunmi BO;Ming WK
通讯作者：
Ming WK
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Runkle, Jennifer D.;Sugg, Margaret M.;Rennie, Jared J.
通讯作者：
Rennie, Jared J.
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138778
发表时间：
2020-08-01
期刊：
The Science of the total environment
影响因子：
--
作者：
Qi, Hongchao;Xiao, Shuang;Zhang, Zhijie
通讯作者：
Zhang, Zhijie
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Tosepu, Ramadhan;Gunawan, Joko;Asfian, Pitrah
通讯作者：
Asfian, Pitrah